Euro, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. EUR\/GBP \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015ferken 0,8654 civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, \u0130ngiltere ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen yeni enflasyon verilerine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Eurostat\u2019a g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) enflasyonu Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6\u2019dan %3,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ekirdek HICP (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ise %2,3\u2019ten %2,2\u2019ye geriledi. Art\u0131\u015fta enerji fiyatlar\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) %2 hedefinin ikinci ayda da \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar 2-3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Baz\u0131 beklentiler bu y\u0131l toplam 75 baz puan (0,75 y\u00fczde puan) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n
ECB yetkilisi Pierre Wunsch, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u201cbir enflasyon sorununun ba\u015f\u0131nda\u201d oldu\u011funu ve ECB\u2019nin \u201cbir noktada tepki vermek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini \u201colduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek\u201d olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE enflasyonu Nisan\u2019da %3,3\u2019ten %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek %3,0 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE de %3,1\u2019den %2,5\u2019e indi ve %2,6 tahmininin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu veri ve zay\u0131f istihdam g\u00f6stergelerinin ard\u0131ndan swap (faiz takas\u0131; gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) fiyatlamas\u0131 12 ay i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 66 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya geriledi (\u00f6nceki 75 baz puandan).<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere siyasetini izliyor. Liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimi s\u00f6ylentileri, Sterlin \u00fczerinde belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cfaizi ilk kim indirecek\u201d sorusuna odaklanmas\u0131yla Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor. Nisan 2026 verileri, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun %2,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum BoE\u2019ye (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika gev\u015fetme alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ge\u00e7en ay %2,8 ile daha kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretmesi, ECB\u2019yi temkinli olmaya zorluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, EUR\/GBP\u2019de put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Opsiyon, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yarayan bir ara\u00e7. Paritede 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen hareket) %7,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce %6,5\u2019ti. Bu, Haziran\u2019daki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi belirgin hareket beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle opsiyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, do\u011frudan pozisyon almaya g\u00f6re daha etkili g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin A\u011fustos 2026\u2019ya kadar faiz indirece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70, ECB\u2019de ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in %40 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz swap\u0131 i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u0130ngiltere getiri e\u011frisinin (tahvillere ait k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli faizlerin seyri) Almanya\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha dik kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 destekliyor. \u0130ngiltere 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark, piyasada BoE\u2019nin ECB\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cters e\u011fri\u201dye (k\u0131sa vadeli faizin uzun vadeden y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu durum) g\u00f6re belirgin de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi riskler, alg\u0131 bozulursa Sterlin\u2019in g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatabilir. ECB\u2019den beklenmedik \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yatk\u0131n) mesajlar ya da \u0130ngiltere\u2019den beklenenden zay\u0131f veriler de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu da riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, EUR\/GBP vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (belirli tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m zorunlulu\u011fu olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) do\u011frudan \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d pozisyonuna g\u00f6re daha temkinli k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro, Sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n: EUR\/GBP \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu ECB\u2019ye faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, zay\u0131flayan \u0130ngiltere verileri BoE patikas\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fatt\u0131; opsiyonla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47107\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}