UOB verileri, paritenin 159,25\u2019e y\u00fckselip ard\u0131ndan 159,07\u2019den kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n (+%0,13) ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede bir i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya koydu. Kurum, yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesini; fiyat hareketinin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 158,75\u2013159,25 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 haftada, destek seviyeleri korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131yor. \u00d6nceki 157,90 deste\u011fi kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131; yerine 158,40 seviyesinde \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek\u201d (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri durdurma ihtimali daha y\u00fcksek seviye) tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni y\u00fckseli\u015fler, 159,25\u2019in net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na ve bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanmas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Bu senaryoda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnler ve haftalar i\u00e7in bir sonraki hedef olarak 159,75 seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019teki de\u011ferlendirmemizde, dolar\u0131n bir s\u00fcre yatay seyretmesinin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in 159,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015fti. Parite sonraki haftalarda bu seviyeyi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine a\u015farak psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli 160,00 seviyesini test etti. Ancak bu hamlede kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u0131z (momentum: y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00fc\u00e7 ve s\u00fcreklili\u011fi) olu\u015fmad\u0131 ve h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc; b\u00f6ylece daha \u00f6nce i\u015faret edilen zay\u0131flayan momentumun kritik bir uyar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
160,00 \u00e7evresindeki bu karars\u0131zl\u0131k, Haziran 2025\u2019te Japon yetkililerin s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 ve piyasada m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesiyle (m\u00fcdahale: kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in resmi al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve bu b\u00f6lge adeta bir tavan olu\u015fturdu. Bu durum, 1 ay vadeli ima edilen oynakl\u0131kta (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131; b\u00f6ylece al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak \u00e7ok pahal\u0131 hale gelirken, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) alanlar i\u00e7in avantaj sa\u011flad\u0131. Sonraki haftalarda parite bu zirveyi anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde zorlayamad\u0131; bu da resmi bask\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ana nedeni, faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) olmaya devam ediyor ve bu fark son bir y\u0131lda \u00e7ok az darald\u0131. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 2025 sonlar\u0131nda negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 resmen bitirse de ad\u0131mlar, ABD\u2019de enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,8 gelmesiyle faizi sabit tutan Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu temel etken, belirgin geri \u00e7ekilmelerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar\u0131 yeniden almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 160,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi seviye) sahip \u201ccall spread\u201d satmay\u0131 (call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015fka bir call sat\u0131larak riskin s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131; burada sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tercih ediliyor) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Ama\u00e7, resmi m\u00fcdahalenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmak. CFTC verileri, yende y\u00fcksek net k\u0131sa pozisyonun (net-short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc toplam pozisyonun y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; yani i\u015flem kalabal\u0131k (crowded: ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde \u00e7ok ki\u015fi pozisyonlu). Buna ra\u011fmen opsiyon primi satmak (premium: opsiyonun pe\u015fin \u00f6denen fiyat\u0131; satmak, bu primi gelir olarak almak) beklenen banttan faydalanman\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli bir yolu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, parite yava\u015f y\u00fckselirse, yatay kal\u0131rsa veya d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de UOB: 159,25 sonras\u0131 yatay bant ba\u015flad\u0131; k\u0131sa vade 158,75\u2013159,25, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek 158,40. 159,25 \u00fcst\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k 159,75 hedefi. 160,00\u2019da m\u00fcdahale riski opsiyonlarda call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47104\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}