USD\/JPY yeniden 159 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Hareketin temel nedeni Japonya\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler de\u011fil, ABD faizlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim oldu. Parite en son 159,10 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 160\u2013161 band\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a m\u00fcdahale (yetkililerin piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkilemesi) riski art\u0131yor. Yetkililer, \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u201d kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; k\u0131sa vadede odak noktas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131).<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin (devlet tahvillerinin faizinin) d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve geni\u015f bazda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu ko\u015fullar olu\u015fmazsa, olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale y\u00fckseli\u015fi ancak bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine yava\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi (bullish momentum: yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin g\u00fcc\u00fc) s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve RSI y\u00fckseldi. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m sinyali i\u00e7in izlenir. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 160 ve \u00f6nceki zirve olan 160,70\u2019te.<\/p>\n
Destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketin duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 157,50\u2019de. Bu seviye 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) ve %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesine denk geliyor. Fibonacci seviyeleri, ge\u00e7mi\u015f hareketten t\u00fcretilen olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 oranlar\u0131d\u0131r. Di\u011fer destek 156,40\u2019ta; bu seviye 2026\u2019daki dipten zirveye hareketin %50 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi (retracement: y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geri verilmesi).<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 159,10\u2019a d\u00f6nerken ana belirleyici yine ABD ile geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131; Japonya i\u00e7 dinamikleri de\u011fil. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011fu i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,65\u2019te sa\u011flam duruyor. Bu durum parite \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Japon otoritelerinin m\u00fcdahale riski 160\u2013161 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131yor. Benzer bir tablo 2024 Nisan-May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu seviyelerde yeni savunmak i\u00e7in do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f 9,8 trilyon yen harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yetkililer yine \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k\u201d s\u00f6ylemini kullanarak m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortamda USD\/JPY put opsiyonu almak (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in net bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ani bir m\u00fcdahale birka\u00e7 yenlik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir; 158 veya alt\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015fleyece\u011fi fiyat) put ta\u015f\u0131mak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle b\u00f6yle bir hareketten faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, hem olas\u0131 bir politika ad\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyon hem de USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle) pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge: zarar\u0131 azaltma) ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahalenin sadece y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, trendi tersine \u00e7evirmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in ise \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2rda olmayan) call opsiyonu satmak (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) bir se\u00e7enek. 161 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla \u201cbear call spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call alarak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama) kurmak, paritenin daha yukar\u0131 gitmemesine oynayarak prim (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) toplamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma) %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ge\u00e7en ayki %8 seviyelerine g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015f. Bu, piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani bir hareket riskini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonlar pahal\u0131la\u015fsa da, piyasadan uzak durman\u0131n risksiz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar trend mi yoksa yakla\u015fan m\u00fcdahale riski mi taraf\u0131nda olacaklar\u0131na karar vermek zorunda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159\u2019a dayand\u0131: itici g\u00fc\u00e7 Japonya de\u011fil, ABD faizleri. 160\u2013161\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken m\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Trend yukar\u0131; 160\/160,70 diren\u00e7, 157,50\u2013156,40 destek. Opsiyonlarda put\/beer call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, volatilite %11,5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47102\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}