TD Securities, Nisan ay\u0131 FOMC (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131 veren kurulu) tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n, metindeki \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201dnin (faiz indirimi sinyali) kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7 yetkilinin destekledi\u011fini ve \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz) y\u00f6ndeki kar\u015f\u0131 oylar sonras\u0131 kurulun ne kadar b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermesini bekliyor. Ekip bunu Fed yetkililerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Notta, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201c\u00e7o\u011funun\u201d gev\u015feme sinyalinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi ve oy hakk\u0131 olan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcyenin kar\u015f\u0131 oy kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00dcFE (enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (maa\u015fl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131) verilerinin, daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa do\u011fru ivmeyi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, Nisan\u2019daki destek d\u00fczeyi ve sonras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ekonomik veriler nedeniyle Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda resmi bir \u201ce\u011filim\u201d de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi bekliyor. \u015eirket, Nisan tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n, son T\u00dcFE ve istihdam verilerinden \u00f6nceye ait oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha az g\u00fcncel kalabilece\u011fini de not ediyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6\u011fleden sonra yap\u0131lacak 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil ihalesi (Hazine\u2019nin 20 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131) de yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. \u0130halenin, uzun vadeli tahvillere (uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma) piyasa talebini test edece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait yakla\u015fan tutanaklar\u0131n, kurul i\u00e7inde \u015fahin bir kaymay\u0131 teyit etmesi ve ka\u00e7 \u00fcyenin faiz indirimine d\u00f6n\u00fck sinyalin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden istedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Bu ton de\u011fi\u015fimi, ekonomide s\u00fcren g\u00fcce i\u015faret eden verilerle destekleniyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Nisan istihdam raporunda ekonominin 295 bin yeni i\u015f ekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu, 210 binlik piyasa beklentisinin (konsens\u00fcs) belirgin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin (yak\u0131n vadede belirlenen faizler) daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Getiriler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde kazand\u0131rabilecek i\u015flemler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ABD gecelik risksiz faiz oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 vadeli kontrat) k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya faiz swap\u0131 taban\u0131 almak (faiz belirli bir seviyenin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmezse \u00f6deme sa\u011flayan koruma \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc). Piyasa art\u0131k 2026\u2019n\u0131n tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) bir indirimden daha az\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, yaln\u0131zca iki ay \u00f6nce beklenen \u00fc\u00e7 indirime g\u00f6re ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6reli olarak daha y\u00fcksek faizler yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u00e7ekebilir. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7ten yararlanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran hak) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u015eahin bir Fed ile Avrupa ve Japonya\u2019daki daha g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimi\/daha gev\u015fek politika) merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimali hisseler i\u00e7in olumsuz olabilir ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Korunma i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) kullan\u0131labilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin S&P 500 veya Nasdaq 100 endekslerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran hak) almak. VIX endeksi (beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) bu y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 12 civar\u0131 diplerden 15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasada tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Fed\u2019in on y\u0131llar\u0131n en sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemi and\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu haftaki 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi, piyasan\u0131n vade riskine (uzun vadeli tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n faize duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) i\u015ftah\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00f6sterge olacak. Zay\u0131f bir sonu\u00e7, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek getiri talep etti\u011fini ve \u015fahin beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar dikkat: Nisan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131, gev\u015feme sinyalinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na \u201c\u00e7o\u011funun\u201d deste\u011fini ve 3 kar\u015f\u0131 oyla b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeyi g\u00f6sterebilir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00dcFE\/istihdam \u015fahinli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131rken, 20Y ihalesi ve dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47099\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}