Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.478 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.480 dolardaki yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,45 civar\u0131ndaki alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerini test etti.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 jeopolitik belirsizlik ve y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri, son bir haftada alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. G\u00f6zler ayr\u0131ca ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Fed ge\u00e7en ay faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Bununla birlikte \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131, metindeki \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201d ifadesinin (ileride faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kap\u0131 aralayan ifade) \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi. Piyasalar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fckseltti. Bu da Hazine tahvili getirilerini art\u0131r\u0131p faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, pazartesi zirvesinden %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geriledi ve k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 4 saatlik grafikte a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n. MACD histogram\u0131 (momentumun\/y\u00f6n\u00fcn zay\u0131flay\u0131p zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) ise negatif b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
4.450 dolar civar\u0131nda destek g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.420 dolar (30 Mart dibi) ve 4.350 dolar (26 Mart dibi) seviyeleri izleniyor. 4.480\u20134.500 band\u0131n\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir ve oda\u011f\u0131 4.590 dolara (pazartesi zirvesi) \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi. Bu, kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede belirleyici unsurun ABD dolar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.500 dolar seviyesini koruyamamas\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flemler) daha avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirmek veya call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, prim geliri ama\u00e7layan opsiyon stratejisi) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ya da y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki en kritik g\u00fcndem Fed\u2019in nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131. Nisan 2026 ABD enflasyonu %3,6 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasa daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 politika e\u011filimi) fiyatl\u0131yor. Tutanaklarda bunun teyit edilmesi, ABD tahvil getirilerini ve dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterek alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u00e7ekici \u015fekilde, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi alt\u0131ndan \u00e7ok dolar\u0131 destekliyor; piyasa dolar\u0131 birincil \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen varl\u0131k) gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Benzer bir durum 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki belirsizlikte de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, ilk g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131 do\u011frudan dolara y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti. Bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n klasik g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7ici olarak geri planda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan izlenecek seviyeler 4.450 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.420 dolar destek b\u00f6lgeleri. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bu seviyelere yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6te yandan 4.590 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde \u201ckullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan) call opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, prim toplamak i\u00e7in bir se\u00e7enek olabilir; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimalinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ancak merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131; bu kurumlar b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin son raporu 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 85 ton net al\u0131m g\u00f6stererek uzun vadeli destekleyici e\u011filimi do\u011frulad\u0131. Fed\u2019den \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir s\u00fcrpriz (faiz indirimi ya da daha gev\u015fek politika sinyali) veya jeopolitik gerilimin h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesi, sert bir ters hareket yarat\u0131p short (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: XAU\/USD 4.500\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda 4.478\u2019de, 7 haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n. DXY ve tahvil getirileri bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 kritik; 4.450\/4.420 destek, 4.590 diren\u00e7. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 denge unsuru.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47093\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}