Alt\u0131n, Mart ay\u0131nda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (50-GHO: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) alt\u0131na indikten beri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde bu seviyeyi geri alamad\u0131. Bu durum, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
4.350 dolar civar\u0131nda bir destek k\u00fcmesi (fiyat\u0131n tutunabilece\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00f6lge) bulunuyor. Bu b\u00f6lgede 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (200-GHO: uzun vadeli ortalama fiyat) ile \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisi (uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden y\u00fckseli\u015f hatt\u0131) kesi\u015fiyor. 200-GHO da 4.353 dolar\/ons seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu alan\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi, 4.100 dolar\/ons y\u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n yeniden 4.500 dolar\/ons seviyesinin alt\u0131na geriledi. K\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanma) olursa, 4.685\u20134.775 band\u0131ndaki son tepe b\u00f6lgesi (pivot tepe: son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f noktas\u0131) diren\u00e7 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamay\u0131nca bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k 4.350 civar\u0131ndaki ana destek k\u00fcmesine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Buras\u0131 kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hem 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya hem de y\u0131llard\u0131r \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan trend \u00e7izgisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon: alt\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan, hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) d\u00f6rt haftad\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 var; sadece May\u0131s\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 milyar dolar fonlardan \u00e7ekildi. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisi beklentiden biraz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelerek %2,8 olsa da al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 yaratmaya yetmedi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in 4.350\u2019nin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (kararl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bir sonraki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek 4.100\u2019de, bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem i\u00e7in daha net bir hedef verir. Bu i\u015flem i\u00e7in tetikleyici, fiyat\u0131n o kritik hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tersine, 4.350 deste\u011fi korunur ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali (reversal: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00f6nme i\u015fareti) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi denenebilir. Ancak olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, 4.685 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvelerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. Mevcut ana e\u011filim zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyona girmeden \u00f6nce teyit (onaylay\u0131c\u0131 sinyal) aranmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) bu kritik seviyeye yakla\u015f\u0131rken y\u00fckseliyor; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda, 4.350 deste\u011finin korunaca\u011f\u0131na oynayanlar i\u00e7in kredi spread (prim geliri hedefleyen, risk ve kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 opsiyon stratejisi) gibi y\u00f6ntemler daha cazip olabilir. Bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ise oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert art\u0131rabilir; bu da \u201cuzun vega\u201d (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131yanlara avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda 50-GHO alt\u0131nda s\u00fcren bask\u0131, oda\u011f\u0131 4.350\u2019deki kritik deste\u011fe ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. K\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.100 riski artar; ETF \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tepkide 4.685\u20134.775 diren\u00e7, opsiyon volatilitesi y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47090\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}