Nisan ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlarla enflasyon) piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bunun ana nedeni hizmet enflasyonundaki gerilemeydi. \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi; \u00fcreticinin maliyet\/fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) ise beklentilerin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri bask\u0131lar\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor: i\u015fsizlik yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 seviyesinde, a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine indi ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu tablo, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor (yani i\u015f arayan say\u0131s\u0131 artarken i\u015fverenlerin eleman bulma bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor).<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE ile \u00dcFE\u2019nin farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere i\u015faret etmesi, para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. BoE\u2019nin \u201csembolik\u201d (tek seferlik, mesaj verme ama\u00e7l\u0131) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn; ancak daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc (pe\u015f pe\u015fe faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025 bahar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinden gelen sinyallerin \u00e7eli\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem vard\u0131. Nisan 2025\u2019te t\u00fcketici enflasyonu beklentiden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,1 geldi; \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ise daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015fla \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Bu da BoE\u2019nin bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n buna nas\u0131l pozisyon alaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda gev\u015feme erken 2025 boyunca belirginle\u015fmi\u015fti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmi\u015f, a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 pandemi sonras\u0131 canlanma d\u00f6neminden bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye inmi\u015fti. Bu g\u00f6stergeler, normalde sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gerektirecek \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f\u201d (talebin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu) bir ekonomiye i\u015faret etmiyordu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar i\u00e7in temel risk, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u201csert\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnmek istemesi nedeniyle \u201csembolik\u201d bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma ihtimaliydi. Zay\u0131flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin tersine olabilecek bu s\u00fcrpriz hamle ihtimali, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz se\u00e7eneklerinde (opsiyonlar\u0131nda) \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. Bu ortamda SONIA vadeli i\u015flemlerinde straddle alma gibi stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilirdi (straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynamak; y\u00f6n de\u011fil hareket hedeflenir). SONIA ise \u0130ngiltere\u2019de gecelik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n (risksiz kabul edilen k\u0131sa vadeli referans faiz) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda bu durum Sterlin\u2019de (GBP) net bir y\u00f6n pozisyonu almay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yordu. Zay\u0131flayan ekonomi sterlini bask\u0131larken, BoE\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rma yanl\u0131s\u0131) s\u00fcrpriz ihtimali sterline destek veriyordu. Bu nedenle GBP\u2019de oynakl\u0131k satmak (kurun dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131na bahse girmek) riskli olabilirdi; kur riskini hedge etmek (korunma i\u015flemiyle riski azaltmak) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m say\u0131labilirdi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili (gilt) getiri e\u011frisini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyordu. Sembolik bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 iki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizini y\u00fckseltebilirken, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc on y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilirdi. Bu ortam, getiri e\u011frisinde \u201cd\u00fczle\u015fme\u201d i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in elveri\u015fliydi; yani k\u0131sa vadeli ve uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n (spread: iki getiri aras\u0131ndaki fark) daralaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Nisan T\u00dcFE beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131, hizmet enflasyonu geriledi; \u00dcFE ise s\u00fcrpriz yukar\u0131. \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc gev\u015fiyor. BoE\u2019nin sembolik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski, GBP ve gilt\u2019te oynakl\u0131k\/d\u00fczle\u015fme stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47089\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}