Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) ayl\u0131k bazda Nisan ay\u0131nda %0,9 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Bu, \u00f6nceki veriyle ayn\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri, \u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u201c\u00c7ekirdek\u201d enflasyon; enerji ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da gibi oynak (h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen) kalemler hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, euro b\u00f6lgesindeki daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat e\u011filimini anlat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ait son Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi, ayl\u0131k bazda fiyatlar\u0131n inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %0,9 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenildi\u011fi kadar azalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) i\u00e7in bu olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB iki y\u0131ld\u0131r enflasyonu hedefe yakla\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015f (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n politika) sinyali verme ihtimali art\u0131yor. Piyasada gecelik endeksli swaplar (OIS: faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yaz aylar\u0131nda ek 25 baz puan (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizi (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) zaten %4,75 seviyesinde. Bu veri, sonbahardan \u00f6nce %5,0 ve \u00fczeri bir seviyeyi daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, k\u0131sa vadede euronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ihtimalini destekliyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verme sinyali verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 euro lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. EUR\/USD paritesinde 1,15 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya vadeli i\u015flem (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda ise bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d, \u015firketlerin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131) bask\u0131lar. Bu nedenle EURO STOXX 50 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa endekslerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu durum \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde (\u00f6r. gayrimenkul ve teknoloji) daha belirgin olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ECB\u2019nin \u201cnihai faiz\u201d seviyesi (terminal rate: faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n duraca\u011f\u0131 seviye) konusunda belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kendisinin i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febildi\u011fi bir ortam yarat\u0131r. EURO STOXX 50\u2019nin oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en VSTOXX endeksi, 20 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmanabilir; bu seviye, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131ndan (piyasa stresi) beri kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde korunam\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz var: Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek HICP Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k %0,9\u2019da tak\u0131l\u0131 kald\u0131. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, ECB\u2019yi daha \u015fahin noktaya itiyor; yaz\u0131n +25 bp, %5 ihtimali art\u0131yor; euro desteklenirken hisselerde bask\u0131, volatilite y\u00fckseli\u015fi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47086\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}