Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP \u2013 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilen t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,2 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, y\u00fczde 2,2 olan beklentiyle ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Nisan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu beklendi\u011fi gibi y\u00fczde 2,2 gelince, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) hemen ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 azald\u0131. Bu seviye y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik hedefe yak\u0131n. Bu da karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 (yani yeni veriler gelmeden karar de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen) temkinli \u00e7izgiyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine imk\u00e2n veriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor ve Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda acil bir faiz indirimi ihtiyac\u0131na i\u015faret etmiyor.<\/p>\n
ECB yetkililerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da bu temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor; \u201ci\u015f bitmedi\u201d mesaj\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi \u2013 \u015firket anketlerine dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/aktivite g\u00f6stergesi) 51,2\u2019ye hafif geriledi. Bu, ekonomik faaliyetin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. Nisan\u2019da i\u015fsizlik y\u00fczde 6,4 ile rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kal\u0131rken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ECB\u2019ye politika gev\u015fetmeden \u00f6nce daha fazla veri bekleme alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025 boyunca piyasalar\u0131 tedirgin eden kal\u0131c\u0131 hizmet enflasyonuna k\u0131yasla, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc istikrar \u00f6nemli. Fiyatlarda daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir patika olu\u015ftu. Bu da piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ECB\u2019nin faiz indirip indirmeyece\u011finden, indirimi tam olarak ne zaman yapaca\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal \u00fcr\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi ara\u00e7larda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yol haritas\u0131 netle\u015ftik\u00e7e, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika s\u00fcrprizi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Bu nedenle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin Eyl\u00fcl veya Aral\u0131k vadeli kontratlarda straddle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte sat\u0131p fiyat\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket etmesinden kazan\u00e7 beklemek).<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fu anda Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimi ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7inse yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 75 olas\u0131l\u0131kla daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da bu takvimden yararlanan i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin vadeli kontratlarda takvim spread\u2019i (farkl\u0131 vadelerde pozisyon al\u0131p vade fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek). Ayr\u0131ca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe tarihlenen swaplarda (faiz takas\u0131 \u2013 taraflar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fken ve sabit faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi anla\u015fma) sabit faiz alma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon ald\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ilk gev\u015femenin o d\u00f6nemde gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fla\u015f: Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon Nisan\u2019da %2,2 ile hedefe yak\u0131n ve beklentiye paralel geldi. ECB\u2019de acele faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor; piyasa Temmuz\u2019u fiyatl\u0131yor, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47085\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}