MUFG, ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselirken ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Japon yeni i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor. **ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi** (uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana **30 baz puan** (0,30 puan) artt\u0131. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar **25 baz puanl\u0131k** (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n **\u00f6rt\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131** (piyasa fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan olas\u0131l\u0131k) ise **%0\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019e** y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde **ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY)** (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) %1,5 y\u00fckseldi; bu, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin ilk d\u00f6neminden bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket oldu. MUFG, getirilerde (tahvil faizlerinde) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun **USD\/JPY** (dolar\/yen kuru) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: 2022 ve Temmuz 2024\u2019te yap\u0131lan m\u00fcdahalelerin ard\u0131ndan ABD tahvil faizleri takip eden haftalarda gerilemi\u015f ve USD\/JPY sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Nisan\/May\u0131s 2024\u2019te faizler y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale etkili olmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Metne g\u00f6re d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar bug\u00fcn daha zor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD tahvil faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor ve bu durum yeni bir m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 16 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 mesaj\u0131 veren) bir ton benimseyebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor; \u015firketlerin maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbiraz h\u0131zl\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funa dair yorumlar buna gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar zaten %80 olas\u0131l\u0131kla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yene ek deste\u011fin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler, enerji piyasalar\u0131 ve ABD tahvil faizleri gibi unsurlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na y\u00f6n veriyor ve USD\/JPY kurunu 162,50 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bunun temel nedeni, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece dolar cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 daha cazip hale getirmesi. Piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleme ihtimali %80\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbe, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerin (2022 ve Temmuz 2024 gibi) ancak ABD tahvil faizleri d\u00fc\u015ferken i\u015fe yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019teki giri\u015fimler ise faizler y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu; mevcut ortam, faizler y\u00fckselmeye devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in daha da zor. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 yeni bir m\u00fcdahalenin etkisi en fazla ge\u00e7ici olabilir.<\/p>\n
Dikkat, 16 Haziran\u2019daki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; burada daha \u015fahin bir ton bekleniyor. Piyasa %80 olas\u0131l\u0131kla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zaten fiyatlasa da, b\u00f6yle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ad\u0131m ABD ile **faiz fark\u0131n\u0131** (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck fark) anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kapatmaz. Yenin belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in birden fazla gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden net sinyaller gerekir; \u015fu a\u015famada bu olas\u0131l\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yenin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde i\u00e7 politikadan \u00e7ok d\u0131\u015f etkenlerin belirlemesi bekleniyor; bu nedenle ABD enflasyon verileri ve enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunlar ABD tahvil faizlerini en \u00e7ok etkileyen ba\u015fl\u0131klar. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik riskler de dolara y\u00f6neli\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek \u00f6nemli bir unsur olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen i\u00e7in alarm: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi 30 bp s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %80\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/JPY 162,50\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131yor; olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7ici kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47077\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}