USD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 159,05 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, Japon yetkililerin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeyi ama\u00e7layan ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan Ulusal T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki genel art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131) verisi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n \u201ciki ya da \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde\u201d yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Tahran\u2019dan gelen yeni bir teklif sonras\u0131 planlanan yeniden ba\u015flatmay\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bir \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya \u201ckararl\u0131\u201d \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cher t\u00fcrl\u00fc askeri sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koymaya haz\u0131r\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzayabilece\u011fi beklentisi, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ilk \u00e7eyrekteki %0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi (GSYH, bir ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) ikinci planda b\u0131rakt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen odak, kurda m\u00fcdahale riski olmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 her an ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m\u0131n ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerini (ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma faizi, k\u00fcresel dolar faizleri i\u00e7in referans) yukar\u0131 itmeyecek \u015fekilde yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine benzer bir tablo var. May\u0131s 2025\u2019te USD\/JPY 159 seviyesini test ederken piyasa, olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ve Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek yak\u0131n m\u00fcdahale tehdidi nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu gerilim pariteyi yukar\u0131da s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililer 2025 yaz\u0131nda 160 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale (devletin d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kuru etkilemesi) etmi\u015f, USD\/JPY sert gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak bu etki kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc temel dinamik de\u011fi\u015fmedi. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn parite yeniden 157,50\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in temel sorun ayn\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizi %4,75\u2019te kal\u0131rken, hizmet enflasyonunun (hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) y\u00fcksek seyri bunu destekliyor; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise faizi ancak %0,25\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabildi. Yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5\u2019lik bu fark, dolar\/yen taraf\u0131nda dolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketten yararlanabilecek stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Sadece spot piyasada (anl\u0131k kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) i\u015flem yapmak riskli; olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale uyar\u0131s\u0131z bi\u00e7imde 500 pip\u2019lik (pip, kurda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratabilir. Bu ortam, fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisine dayal\u0131 opsiyon i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in (opsiyon, belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha uygun kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda straddle ya da strangle gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla (i\u015fleme ge\u00e7me fiyat\u0131) hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r; strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r. Bu sayede, kur ister \u201ccarry trade\u201d (faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimiyle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7me) etkisiyle 160\u2019a y\u00f6nelsin, ister Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesiyle 152\u2019ye sert d\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn, b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir. Ana risk, paritenin yatay kalmas\u0131 ve opsiyonlar\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde de\u011fer kaybetmesidir (zaman de\u011feri erimesi).<\/p>\n
Son veriler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor: ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019si enflasyonun beklenenden daha \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,4 ile g\u00f6sterirken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ulusal T\u00dcFE\u2019si %2,2 civar\u0131nda. \u0130ran cephesinde gerilim y\u00fcksek ama kilitli bir dengeye oturmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fta tercih edilen para birimi) talebini azalt\u0131yor. Bu tabloda ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 faiz fark\u0131 olurken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez ana risk olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: ABD\u2011\u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 desteklerken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ani m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Faiz fark\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar straddle\/strangle ile sert harekete oynuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47047\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}