ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k API (American Petroleum Institute \u2013 Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc) ham petrol stoklar\u0131, 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten haftada 9,1 milyon varil azald\u0131. Beklenti 3,4 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan 9,1 milyon varillik stok azalmas\u0131 (stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali. Piyasa beklentisinin neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131. Bu da arz-talep dengesinin (piyasaya gelen miktar ile t\u00fcketim) \u00f6nceki tahminlere g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu API verisini, resmi EIA (Energy Information Administration \u2013 ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporu izledi ve 7,8 milyon varillik b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme WTI\u2019\u0131 (West Texas Intermediate \u2013 ABD tipi ham petrol referans\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131maya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ayr\u0131ca, \u00c7in\u2019in Nisan 2026 petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5 artmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin verilerle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor; bu da k\u00fcresel talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019de yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu yakla\u015f\u0131yor; benzin talebi de ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re \u015fimdiden %2 daha y\u00fcksek seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in beklenen fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli WTI al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda 90-95 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike \u2013 opsiyonun alma hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelinden faydalan\u0131rken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility \u2013 piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) bu haberle y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bunu dengelemek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread \u2013 bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) uygulanabilir: Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p, ayn\u0131 vadede daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak. Bu strateji ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve fiyat\u0131n sert de\u011fil, daha kontroll\u00fc y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyorsa daha uygundur.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak OPEC+ toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile ABD haftal\u0131k \u00fcretim verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu zay\u0131flatabilecek sinyaller gelebilir. Ayr\u0131ca ABD kule say\u0131s\u0131nda (rig count \u2013 aktif sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131, \u00fcretim e\u011filimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) belirgin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi veya OPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim kesintilerini gev\u015fetebilece\u011fine dair mesajlar gelmesi halinde stratejiler g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde ralli kap\u0131da: ABD API ham petrol stoklar\u0131 9,1 milyon varil eridi, EIA 7,8 milyonla do\u011frulad\u0131. Arz s\u0131k\u0131, talep canl\u0131; WTI 85$ \u00fcst\u00fc. 90-95$ call\/bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. OPEC+ ve \u00fcretim risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47038\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}