ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ADP istihdam raporunun ABD\u2019li \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fverenlerinin son d\u00f6rt haftada ortalama 42.250 ki\u015filik istihdam sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi sonras\u0131 99,30 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Bu, haftal\u0131k serinin Ekim 2025\u2019te ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin \u201c\u0130ran\u2019a bir darbe daha vurmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fini\u201d ve \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fma yapmak i\u00e7in yalvard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015fleyebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc enstr\u00fcmanlar) talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (tahvil faizi) y\u00fckselirken ve dolara talep artarken EUR\/USD 1,1610\u2019a geriledi. GBP\/USD 1,3400 civar\u0131na indi; USD\/JPY 159,00\u2019a y\u00f6neldi ve AUD\/USD 0,7110\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
WTI petrol\u00fc (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda arz kesintisi riski endi\u015feleriyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 104,30 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Alt\u0131n, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle (paran\u0131n dolara kaymas\u0131) ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.480 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan veriler aras\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in PBoC (\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz karar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere nisan enflasyonu, Almanya nisan HICP (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ve Yeni Zelanda, Avustralya ve Japonya\u2019dan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri yer al\u0131yor. Hafta ilerledik\u00e7e k\u00fcresel PMI\u2019lar (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma sinyali), ABD konut verileri ve i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, Japonya T\u00dcFE, Almanya GSYH ve IFO (Almanya i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven endeksi), \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve ABD Michigan duyarl\u0131l\u0131k endeksi de izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l istihdam piyasas\u0131 \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc; ADP gibi veriler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekliyordu. Son d\u00f6nemde ise Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP; ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verileri, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha dengeli bir h\u0131zla yakla\u015f\u0131k 185 bin civar\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu tablo, vadeli i\u015flemlerle (futures; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) agresif dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahis alman\u0131n riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bunun yerine yatay bantta hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde strangle satmak (opsiyon stratejisi; fiyat\u0131n belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan prim geliri hedeflemek i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 vadede \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d ve \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d sat\u0131lmas\u0131).<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda jeopolitik risk primi (jeopolitik olaylar nedeniyle fiyata eklenen \u201cek risk pay\u0131\u201d) May\u0131s 2025\u2019e g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma korkusu WTI ham petrol\u00fc 104 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel talepte zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleriyle petrol art\u0131k 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 beklentisiyle \u201cdo\u011frudan al\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almada temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Bunun yerine mevcut uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccovered call\u201d satmak (elde fiziki\/uzun pozisyon varken \u00fczerine call satarak prim geliri elde etmek) veya \u201cbear call spread\u201d kurmak (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ile, y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk\/gelir hedefleyen strateji) daha uygun olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, petrol\u00fcn yatay kalmas\u0131 ya da d\u00fc\u015fmesi senaryosunda gelir hedefler ve mevcut arz-talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle daha uyumludur.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenli liman taraf\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim var. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc o kadar bask\u0131nd\u0131 ki belirsizlik s\u00fcrse bile alt\u0131n gerileyebiliyordu; alt\u0131n 4.480 dolar civar\u0131nda zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi ise dolar\u0131n ivmesi (y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) yava\u015flarken ve enflasyon \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kal\u0131rken (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon), alt\u0131n yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 4.600 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinde (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131n olan vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 2025\u2019te \u201ctek g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu da alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya \u201cbull call spread\u201di (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle iki call kullanarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi \u201crisk duyarl\u0131\u201d para birimleri (k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7lenen\/zay\u0131flayan kurlar), eskisi kadar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan bask\u0131lanm\u0131yor. Bu ortam, sadece dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olmayan daha se\u00e7ici stratejilere alan a\u00e7\u0131yor ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l daha az \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7apraz paritelerde (USD i\u00e7ermeyen d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftleri) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ADP verisi DXY\u2019\u0131 99,30\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rd\u0131. Euro\/d\u00f6vizler gerilerken WTI 104,3$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, alt\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131; opsiyonla bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}