Y\u00fckselen Asya varl\u0131klar\u0131, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert art\u0131\u015f\u0131n (petrol \u015foku: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi) Endonezya, Filipinler ve Hindistan\u2019daki stresi art\u0131rmas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Bu hareketler; sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 paras\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkeden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131), kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Tahvil piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) riski de y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n
Endonezya\u2019da rupi (IDR) rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hisseler gerilerken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,76\u2019ya yak\u0131n. IDR, Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prabowo Subianto\u2019nun Ekim 2024\u2019te g\u00f6reve gelmesinden bu yana %14 de\u011fer kaybetti; Moody\u2019s ve Fitch ise Endonezya tahvillerinin notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc (kredi notu indirimi: \u00fclkenin borcunu \u00f6deme g\u00fcc\u00fcne dair alg\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131).<\/p>\n
MSCI, Endonezya\u2019dan alt\u0131 \u015firketi endeksinden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketler endeksinden 13 \u015firketi \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. MSCI (k\u00fcresel endeks sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131: fonlar\u0131n k\u0131yas ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksleri haz\u0131rlayan kurulu\u015f) bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine dair endi\u015felerin ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Filipinler\u2019de planlanan 7 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi, teklifler faizin %8,125\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterince iptal edildi. Planlanan 30 milyar PHP\u2019lik sat\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in 37 milyar PHP teklif geldi ve t\u00fcm teklifler reddedildi.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019da 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn 7 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 1 bp = %0,01) y\u00fckseldikten sonra 3 bp d\u00fc\u015ferek %7,10\u2019a indi. H\u00fck\u00fcmet akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %3 art\u0131rd\u0131; bu son d\u00f6rt y\u0131ldaki ilk art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
Endonezya rupisi, siyasi risk, kredi notu indirimleri ve MSCI endeksinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmalar\u0131n birle\u015fimi nedeniyle en net \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) pozisyon aday\u0131. Geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, rupinin Nisan 2024\u2019te dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 16.200 seviyesinin alt\u0131na kaymas\u0131, alg\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; mevcut tablo daha a\u011f\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda short IDR pozisyonu i\u00e7in NDF (teslimats\u0131z vadeli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemi: vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi de\u011fil, fark \u00f6demesi yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullan\u0131labilir; daha fazla zay\u0131flama bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Filipinler\u2019de ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z tahvil ihalesi, geli\u015fen bir finansman s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor: Devlet, piyasan\u0131n istedi\u011fi faizlerden bor\u00e7lanam\u0131yor. Bu, Filipinler\u2019de faizlerin yukar\u0131 zorlanabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklenti, faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan ise akaryak\u0131t zamm\u0131yla b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine (kamu harcamas\u0131\u2013gelir dengesi) i\u015faret ederek g\u00f6rece daha sa\u011flam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu, \u201c\u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\u201d (pairs trade: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131kta al\u0131m, zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131kta sat\u0131\u015f) fikrini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor: Hindistan rupisi (INR) al\u0131n\u0131rken Endonezya rupisi (IDR) sat\u0131labilir. B\u00f6ylece Endonezya\u2019ya \u00f6zg\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalan\u0131rken dolar\u0131n genel hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 risk azalt\u0131l\u0131r (hedge: korunma).<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda MSCI yeniden dengelemesi (endeks a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmesi), Endonezya hisselerinde sat\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir tetikleyici. Bu i\u015fleme endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (endeks future: ileri tarihte endeksi alma\/satma s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u00fczerinden gidilebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerin endeksten \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131, endeksi takip eden fonlarda (pasif fon: endeksi aynen izleyen fon) zorunlu sat\u0131\u015f yarat\u0131r ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu, belirli bir olaya ba\u011fl\u0131 (event-driven: haber\/olay kaynakl\u0131) bir i\u015flemdir ve olumsuz makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle uyumludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Asya varl\u0131klar\u0131nda alarm: Dolar, petrol ve ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselirken Endonezya\u2013Filipinler\u2013Hindistan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. IDR rekor dipte, not indirimleri\/MSC\u0130 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 var; Filipinler ihale iptaliyle s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, Hindistan g\u00f6rece sa\u011flam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t