USD\/JPY yedinci g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi; %0,10 art\u0131\u015fla 12 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi olan 159,25\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yaz\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 159,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Hareket, paritenin 159,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla geldi. Bu b\u00f6lge, Japon yetkililerin **d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale** (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in resmi al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) edebilece\u011fi alan olarak s\u0131k izlenir.<\/p>\n
Parite 159,00\u2013160,00 etraf\u0131nda yatay seyredebilir; bu b\u00f6lgede sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. **RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi)** al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 159,52\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, bir sonraki test 160,00 olabilir. Bunun \u00fczerinde s\u0131radaki seviye y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan 160,72.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 159,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na inerse, odak \u00f6nce **50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (Basit Hareketli Ortalama)** olan 158,80\u2019e, ard\u0131ndan **20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA** olan 158,23\u2019e kayar. Daha fazla geri \u00e7ekilmede 158,00 g\u00fcndeme gelir; sonras\u0131nda **100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA** 157,49 izlenir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f bizi ge\u00e7mi\u015fte gerilimin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik bir b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Son yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana nedeni, **faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n** (ABD\u2019de faizler daha y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n avantaj sa\u011flamas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131: **Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu** (faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrerken, **Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha pasif kalmas\u0131** yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc temel e\u011filim ile resmi m\u00fcdahale riskini ayn\u0131 anda b\u00fcy\u00fcten gergin bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Riskin ne oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in 2024 ilkbahar\u0131na bakmak yeterli; parite o d\u00f6nemde 160,00 seviyesini a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Japon yetkililer daha sonra yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon yen harcad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131 ve bu da kurda ani ve sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik resmi tolerans\u0131n bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 oldu\u011funa ve yeniden o s\u0131n\u0131ra yakla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in artan bu gerilim, **ima edilen volatiliteyi** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) izlemeyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgelerinde volatilite genelde s\u0131\u00e7rar. **Uzun straddle** (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) veya **uzun strangle** (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) gibi stratejiler, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir: ya k\u0131r\u0131lma gelir ya da m\u00fcdahale nedeniyle sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olur. Kritik nokta, volatilite \u00e7ok pahal\u0131 hale gelmeden pozisyon almakt\u0131r; Nisan 2024 sonundaki hareketler \u00e7evresinde bu maliyet h\u0131zla artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckselerek 159,25 ile 12 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00f6zler 159-160 m\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgesinde. Fed-BOJ faiz fark\u0131 deste\u011fi s\u00fcrerken RSI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. K\u0131r\u0131lma 160\u2019a, geri \u00e7ekilme 158,80\u2019e; opsiyonda volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47034"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47034\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}