EUR\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle 1,1600 b\u00f6lgesine geriledi. Dolar\u0131 destekleyen unsurlar; ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki (devlet tahvillerinin faizi) y\u00fckseli\u015f ve ABD istihdam verileriydi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131 ve euroya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verdi.<\/p>\n
ADP raporuna g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fverenleri May\u0131s\u2019\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda 42.250 ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu veri, serinin Ekim 2025\u2019te ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rakam oldu ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimlerinde temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran konusunda daha sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan da de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Trump, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019a bir darbe daha vurmak zorunda kalabiliriz\u201d ve \u201c\u0130ran anla\u015fma yapmak i\u00e7in yalvar\u0131yor\u201d dedi. Bu s\u00f6ylem, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolara y\u00f6nelmesi) art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkilileri uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin endi\u015felere i\u015faret etti. ECB raporunda; i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 e\u011filimleri ve g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn ekonomik faaliyeti destekledi\u011fi, ancak demografik sorunlar\u0131n (n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131 gibi) ileride b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte EUR\/USD 1,1599 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli bir d\u00f6nem fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 1,1638 ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n 1,1710 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destek 1,1592 civar\u0131nda, RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 27 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri ise 1,1612, 1,1624, 1,1635 ve 1,1710 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) almak daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir. Bu sayede paritenin 1,1400 b\u00f6lgesine gerilemesinden faydalanma hedefi korunurken, maksimum zarar \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, euroda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini kontroll\u00fc riskle yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesine daha do\u011frudan maruz kalmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu noktada 1,1420 deste\u011fi yak\u0131ndan izlenebilir; bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Pasifik\u2019te s\u00fcren ticaret gerilimleri dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli liman talebini canl\u0131 tutarken piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 olas\u0131. 1 ayl\u0131k EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %6,8 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. Bu durum, y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun olas\u0131 sert harekete oynamak i\u00e7in straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya strangle\u2019\u0131n (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1600\u2019e \u00e7ekildi: Dolar\u0131 tahvil faizleri, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ADP istihdam\u0131 ve Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; destek 1,1592. Stratejide put, k\u0131sa vadeli kontrat ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck IV\u2019le straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47029"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47029\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}