ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatabilece\u011fini, ancak hen\u00fcz karar vermedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 Beyaz Saray\u2019da gazetecilere yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u0130ran\u2019a bir kez daha vurmak zorunda kalabiliriz ama emin de\u011filim\u201d dedi ve \u201c\u0130ran anla\u015fma yapmak i\u00e7in adeta yalvar\u0131yor\u201d iddias\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Trump K\u00fcba\u2019ya da de\u011finerek, \u201cK\u00fcba\u2019da rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirmek hakk\u0131nda bilmiyorum\u201d dedi. \u201cK\u00fcba\u2019n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten yard\u0131ma ihtiyac\u0131 var\u201d diye ekledi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan\u0131n birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen mesajlar\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. As\u0131l konu, piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckselmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak. Asker\u00ee ad\u0131m s\u00f6ylemi ile diplomatik anla\u015fma ihtimali \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir\u00e7ok alanda opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (opsiyon primi: opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
En h\u0131zl\u0131 etki enerji piyasalar\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle WTI ve Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (vadeli i\u015flem: ileri bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. D\u00fcnyadaki petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si h\u00e2l\u00e2 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimaline dair en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015faret bile fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu seviye 2025\u2019teki arz \u015foklar\u0131ndan (arz \u015foku: \u00fcretim\/tedarik bozuldu\u011fu i\u00e7in fiyatlar\u0131n ani s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131) beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30\u201360 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in ham petrolde \u201czarar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, kazanc\u0131n y\u00fcksek olabildi\u011fi\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir pozisyon olabilir. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcndeki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip; hemen k\u00e2rda olmayan) call opsiyonlar\u0131 da bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik riskler CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX: ABD borsas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) genellikle hareketlendirir. VIX \u015fu s\u0131ralar 13 ile sakin bir d\u00fczeyde. VIX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, genel piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak) isteyenler i\u00e7in VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri veya VIX call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. 2025\u2019te benzer gerilimlerde VIX\u2019in bir haftada %40 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fc y\u00f6netenler i\u00e7in bu tablo, S&P 500 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) al\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Beyaz Saray\u2019dan gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k mesajlar \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha temkinli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek piyasada h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7abilir. Ani bir asker\u00ee hamle, endeksleri y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip seviyelere do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar (g\u00fcvenli liman: belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131klar) taraf\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle alt\u0131n izleniyor. Alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, belirsizlikten ka\u00e7an yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n talebiyle alt\u0131n\u0131 yeni zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek ek bir destek olu\u015fturabilir. Alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF: borsada hisse gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, bu e\u011filime daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kla (kald\u0131ra\u00e7 etkisine benzer \u015fekilde) pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan \u201canla\u015fma yapmak i\u00e7in yalvar\u0131yor\u201d ifadesi gerilimin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde da\u011f\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durumda \u201coynakl\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d (volatility crush: belirsizlik azal\u0131nca opsiyon primlerinin h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda dikey spread gibi stratejiler (vertical spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan opsiyon al\u0131p satma; riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama y\u00f6ntemi) daha uygun olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin enerji taraf\u0131nda al\u0131nan bir call opsiyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir call satmak (daha pahal\u0131 seviyede sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 vererek primi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek), durum sakinle\u015firse zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump\u2019tan \u0130ran\u2019a \u201cyeniden vurabiliriz\u201d mesaj\u0131: Piyasalar belirsizlikte! Petrol (WTI\/Brent), VIX, S&P 500 opsiyon primleri y\u00fckselebilir; alt\u0131n destek bulur. Anla\u015fma gelirse volatilite h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6ker.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47022\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}