Euro, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (CAD) desteklemesiyle Kanada Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. EUR\/CAD 1,5970 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f Mart\u2019taki %0,9\u2019un alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve %0,6\u2019l\u0131k beklentinin gerisinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE %2,4\u2019ten %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ancak %3,1\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,5\u2019ten %2,1\u2019e geriledi. Bu tablo, ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen daha zay\u0131f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileriyle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken BoC\u2019nin \u015fimdilik para politikas\u0131nda (faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmemesine alan a\u00e7abilir. Piyasalar yine de y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Odak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verilerine kay\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek HICP\u2019nin (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,2\u2019de kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ayl\u0131k man\u015fet HICP\u2019nin (genel enflasyon) ise %1,0 seviyesinde korunaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az iki Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda ECB\u2019nin gerekirse ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu, Haziran kararlar\u0131n\u0131n gelen verilere ve enerji arz\u0131ndaki s\u00fcregelen sorunlara g\u00f6re \u015fekillenece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunurken, EUR\/CAD paritesi (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) belirgin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor ve 1,5970 seviyesini zorluyor. Mevcut jeopolitik gerginlikler, parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olumsuz etki (r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n tersine esmesi) yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kanada T\u00dcFE verisinin beklentinin (%3,1) alt\u0131nda %2,8 gelmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131. Son veriler, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %4,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da para birimi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131yla do\u011frudan ili\u015fkilendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00f6ylece kur, \u00fclke i\u00e7i enflasyon dinamiklerinden (temel fiyat e\u011filimlerinden) k\u0131smen kopmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP verilerine \u00e7evriliyor. Piyasalar, son \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi ta\u015f\u0131yan) a\u00e7\u0131klamalara dayanarak bu y\u0131l en az iki ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Ancak bu beklenti k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Almanya\u2019da fabrika sipari\u015fleri (sanayi talebinin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en ay beklenmedik \u015fekilde %0,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 (faizi h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131) riskli olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/CAD\u2019de tek y\u00f6ne bahis oynamak yerine oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na) odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. BoC\u2019nin zay\u0131f i\u00e7 veriler nedeniyle beklenenden daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nan, daha yumu\u015fak) bir duru\u015fa d\u00f6nmesi sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f getirebilir. Benzer \u015fekilde, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi de pariteyi yukar\u0131 itebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, petrol kaynakl\u0131 gerginliklerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 pariteyi daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda (belirli bir vadede belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. EUR\/CAD i\u00e7in bir ayl\u0131k \u201crisk reversal\u201d (al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6reli fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (put; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) belirgin talep oldu\u011funu i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n petrol kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bedel \u00f6dedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. Ters y\u00f6nde pozisyon alan bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ise, Kanada enflasyon verilerinin zamanla BoC\u2019yi daha yumu\u015fak bir \u00e7izgiye itece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsa, pahal\u0131 hale gelen bu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle 95 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde; CAD g\u00fc\u00e7lenince Euro Kanada Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,5970\u2019e geriledi. Kanada T\u00dcFE beklenti alt\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek yava\u015fl\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP ve ECB faiz patikas\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47018\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}