TD Securities, Kanada\u2019da nisan ay\u0131 enflasyonunun (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi ve zay\u0131f istihdam verilerinin, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde (Q2) USD\/CAD paritesini (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kanada dolar\u0131 kuru) 1,37 civar\u0131nda desteklemesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu belirtti. Kurum, Kanada verileri toparlan\u0131r ve USMCA (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131) kaynakl\u0131 riskler azal\u0131rsa, USD\/CAD\u2019de daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda (H2) g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8 geldi; ayl\u0131k bazda fiyatlar %0,4 artt\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7, TD Securities ve piyasan\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Notta, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) genel bir yumu\u015fama ve enflasyonun yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergelerde (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar geni\u015f bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\/hizmet grubuna yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131) ilerleme oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Bu durumun, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6rmesine ve karar\u0131n\u0131 buna tak\u0131lmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131narak vermesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, USD\/CAD i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekleyecek etkenlerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2026\u2019da BoC\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kur ve faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine yans\u0131tmas\u0131) daha da gerileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ait son Kanada enflasyon verisi k\u0131sa vadeli beklentiyi de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. T\u00dcFE %2,8 ile beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu da BoC\u2019ye ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeden \u00f6nce bekleyip g\u00f6rme alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, Statistics Canada\u2019n\u0131n son istihdam raporu nisanda net 12 bin ki\u015filik i\u015f kayb\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %6,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki (istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik ko\u015fullar\u0131) bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, enflasyondaki so\u011fumayla birlikte Kanada ekonomisinin ivme kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasada i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri kur\/faiz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn), bu tablo \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD kurunun yatay kalmas\u0131 veya y\u00fckselmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/CAD\u2019de 1,3750 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviyeler) ve vadesi haziran sonu ya da temmuz olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) sat\u0131n almak uygun bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, parite kademeli y\u00fckselirse yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunarken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025 ilkbahar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, benzer bir tabloda zay\u0131f yurti\u00e7i veriler BoC ile Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika beklentilerinin ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve USD\/CAD\u2019de belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu d\u00f6nem, iki \u00fclkenin ekonomik temelleri ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda paritenin h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle paritenin bu \u00e7eyre\u011fin kalan\u0131nda 1,37 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli beklenti USD\/CAD\u2019in y\u00fcksek seviyelerini korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimali de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, eyl\u00fcl vadeli \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte al\u0131p satma) satarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; bu, paritenin belirgin \u015fekilde daha yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. Ancak dikkatle izlenmeli; USMCA anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesine ili\u015fkin bir belirsizli\u011fin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kanada\u2019da nisan T\u00dcFE %2,8 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ve zay\u0131f istihdam USD\/CAD\u2019i 2026 Q2\u2019de 1,37\u2019de tutabilir; kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f H2\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47016\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}