BBH\u2019den Elias Haddad, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY \u2014 dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bunu ABD\u2019de ekonomik faaliyetin diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131na, \u00fclkenin net enerji dengesinin pozitif olmas\u0131na (ithal etti\u011finden daha fazla enerji ihra\u00e7 etmesi) ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow modeli (g\u00fcncel verilerle b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u201canl\u0131k\u201d tahmin eden model), 2. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) %4,0 olarak hesapl\u0131yor; 1. \u00e7eyrekte bu oran %2,0 idi. Notta ayr\u0131ca, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar bazl\u0131 varl\u0131klara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebinin dolar\u0131 destekledi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Uluslararas\u0131 Sermaye Hareketleri (TIC \u2014 yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD varl\u0131k al\u0131m-sat\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen veri seti) verilerine g\u00f6re, Mart ay\u0131na kadar olan 12 ayda yabanc\u0131lar uzun vadeli ABD menkul k\u0131ymetlerinden (uzun vadeli tahvil ve benzeri finansal varl\u0131klar) 1.553 milyar dolar biriktirdi. Bu tutar Ocak\u2019taki rekor 1.680 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye oldu.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 12 ayda ABD, -700 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi. Uzun vadeli menkul k\u0131ymet al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131 olan 1.553 milyar dolar, bu d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re, ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daral\u0131rsa uzun vadeli ABD menkul k\u0131ymetlerine yabanc\u0131 talep zay\u0131flayabilir. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az dolar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu paran\u0131n yeniden ABD menkul k\u0131ymetlerine y\u00f6nlendirilmesi (dolarlar\u0131n \u201cgeri d\u00f6nmesi\u201d) ihtiyac\u0131 azal\u0131r. Bu da zamanla dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uzun s\u00fcredir izlenen 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 Fed\u2019i daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutuma iterken, Nisan 2026 enflasyon verisinin beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131), faiz indirimi beklentilerini daha ileri tarihlere itti. Bu ortamda, dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme), \u00f6rne\u011fin DXY \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option \u2014 belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) sat\u0131n almak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu g\u00fc\u00e7, sa\u011flam b\u00fcy\u00fcme zemini ve \u00fclkenin pozitif net enerji dengesiyle destekleniyor. Atlanta Fed GDPNow modeli, 2026 2. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %2,8 ile sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir seviyede izliyor; bu da dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. 2025\u2019te de benzer \u015fekilde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemi\u015f ve dolara yarar sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lardan gelen temel dolar talebi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Mart 2025\u2019e kadarki 12 ayda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD menkul k\u0131ymetlerinde 1,5 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde birikim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rahat\u00e7a kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya kadar olan en g\u00fcncel Hazine verileri, bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde dolara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel al\u0131m ilgisi (dipte al\u0131m) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Yine de ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, zaman i\u00e7inde dolar i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal bir bask\u0131 unsuru olabilir. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az dolar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bu dolarlar\u0131n ABD menkul k\u0131ymetlerine geri d\u00f6nmesi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu uzun vadeli unsur, dolar y\u00f6n\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n daha k\u0131sa vadeli ve kontroll\u00fc kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin bir-iki ay vadeli opsiyonlarla (vade: s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin biti\u015f tarihi) beklenen yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout \u2014 \u00f6nemli bir seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) hareketi hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY\u2019de kritik e\u015fik: BBH, 96\u2013100 band\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p 100 \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, pozitif enerji dengesi, \u015fahin Fed ve yabanc\u0131 talep dolar\u0131 destekliyor; a\u00e7\u0131k daralmas\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47014\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}