Commerzbank analistleri Barbara Lambrecht ve Volkmar Baur, \u00c7in\u2019in metal piyasas\u0131nda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor: Al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretimi artarken talep zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Analistlere g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7i arz (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki \u00fcretim ve sunulan miktar), yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketimden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in birincil (ilk \u00fcretim, yani hurda geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnden de\u011fil maden ve al\u00fcmina kaynakl\u0131) al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretimi, marttaki %2,7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re %3,1 y\u00fckseldi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim 129 bin tonla rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck al\u00fcmina (al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan temel hammadde) maliyetlerinin destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131, \u00fcretimi h\u00fck\u00fcmetin y\u0131ll\u0131k 45 milyon tonluk tavan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne itiyor. Nisan ay\u0131ndaki \u00fcretim h\u0131z\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011fa \u00e7evrildi\u011finde 47 milyon tona denk geldi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in nisan ay\u0131nda al\u00fcminyum ihracat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, ancak talep ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda gelmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00fclke i\u00e7i stoklar y\u00fckseldi. Shanghai Metal Markets verilerine g\u00f6re stoklar bu y\u0131l ikiye katlanarak 1,37 milyon tona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Makale bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi.<\/p>\n
Bu arz fazlas\u0131, \u00fclke i\u00e7i talebin \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131 olan gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde olu\u015fuyor. Nisan 2026 verilerine g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019de gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9,8 daha geriledi ve uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00dcretim PMI verisi (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, 50 alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 50 puan\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde kalsa da, in\u015faattaki belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131k metal t\u00fcketimine dair olumlu sinyali g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu stok y\u00fck\u00fc (piyasada biriken y\u00fcksek stok), al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ton ba\u015f\u0131na 2.550 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden mevcut LME fiyat\u0131 (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019ndaki uluslararas\u0131 referans fiyat) \u00c7in\u2019deki zay\u0131f temel dinamikleri yeterince yans\u0131tm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u00fcminyum vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Piyasa stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n boyutunu tam fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a 2.400 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, vadeli piyasada do\u011frudan \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d (short; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) pozisyona k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z zarar riskini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de al\u00fcminyumda alarm: \u00dcretim rekor k\u0131r\u0131p 47 milyon ton h\u0131z\u0131na ko\u015farken talep zay\u0131f, stoklar 1,37 milyon tona f\u0131rlad\u0131. K\u00e2r marj\u0131 arz\u0131 \u015fi\u015firiyor; fiyatlar 2.400 dolara sarkabilir. Put opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47012\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}