DBS Group Research\u2019e g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131. Temel senaryo, petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 108 dolar seviyesinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyonda \u201cikinci tur etkilerin\u201d (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fccret ve di\u011fer fiyatlar\u0131n yeniden artmas\u0131yla enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel senaryoda, T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) enflasyonunun 2026 sonuna kadar %3,7\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, politika faizi olan banka faizi (bank rate) i\u00e7in %3,75 seviyesiyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, enflasyonu %2 hedefe geri \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in sonbahar sonuna do\u011fru 1\u20132 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n OIS (gecelik endeksli swap; k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) fiyatlamas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin 30 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) \u00f6nce faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6nceki toplant\u0131da, Ba\u015fekonomist Huw Pill h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in oy veren tek \u00fcye olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Alternatif senaryoda, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmle yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde faizlerde ara verilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn yeni zirvelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ise, BoE\u2019nin 2022\u2019de enflasyona ge\u00e7 tepki verdi\u011fi hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) bir tutumu tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faizlerinin seyri art\u0131k do\u011frudan petrol fiyat\u0131na ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle enerji t\u00fcrevleri (petrol gibi enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine dayal\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyonlar) devlet tahvili (gilt) ve SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00f6sterge haline geliyor. Brent petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (gelecekteki fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmalar\u0131) artan oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Brent varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 105 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu da bizi temel senaryonun i\u00e7ine yerle\u015ftiriyor. \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren gerilim, petrol \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanarak olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131, BoE\u2019nin daha sert bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir \u201ckorunma\u201d arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte petrol 108 dolar civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, sonbahar sonuna do\u011fru bir veya iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmeli. Bu beklenti tam olarak fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil; Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli SONIA kontratlar\u0131 (Sterlin Gecelik Endeksli Ortalama; BoE politika faizini izleyen g\u00f6sterge faiz) son bir haftada yaln\u0131zca 5 baz puan y\u00fckseldi (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 1\/100\u2019\u00fc). Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz riskini de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015f eden s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) sabit faiz \u00f6demeyi (pay fixed; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) de\u011ferlendirerek bu olas\u0131 senaryoya konumlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ran\u2019la diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme dair g\u00fcvenilir bir i\u015faret g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taktik f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131r. Petrol\u00fcn 90 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi, piyasalar\u0131n beklenen sonbahar faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131na ve k\u0131sa vadeli gilt fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7ar. Bu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ancak etkisi y\u00fcksek senaryo i\u00e7in SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyonlarla (fiyata ba\u011fl\u0131 hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
En \u00f6nemli risk, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzay\u0131p petrol\u00fc 130 dolara ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131; bu seviye 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yeti\u015fmek i\u00e7in sert \u015fekilde faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, BoE\u2019den de benzer \u015fekilde daha \u015fahin ve \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli (faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 daha erken ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yapan) bir tepki beklenebilir. Bu durum, devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201czarar durdurma\u201d ama\u00e7l\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money; hemen kazanca ge\u00e7meyen) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) keskin bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 cazip bir kuyruk risk korumas\u0131 haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol BoE\u2019nin pusulas\u0131 oldu: DBS\u2019ye g\u00f6re Brent 108 dolarda kal\u0131rsa sonbahara 1-2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 masada; OIS %58. \u0130ran\u2019da diplomasi faiz aras\u0131, 130 dolar \u015fahinle\u015fme getirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47011\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}