Kanada Dolar\u0131, Kanada tahvil faizleri (tahvil getirileri) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sabit ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 olsa da ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; USD\/CAD y\u00fckseliyor. Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n USD\/CAD i\u00e7in adil de\u011fer (kurun temel verilere g\u00f6re \u201colmas\u0131 gereken\u201d seviyesi) tahmini 1,35\u2019e yeniden yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve 1,3504 oldu.<\/p>\n
Banka, USD\/CAD\u2019nin yeniden pahal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc (de\u011ferinin olmas\u0131 gerekenden y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu) ve Nisan\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha geni\u015f fark\u0131n geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca paritenin, 31 Mart\u20131 May\u0131s d\u00f6nemindeki 1,3967\u2019den 1,3550\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %50 geri alma (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n geri verilmesi) seviyesini test etti\u011fini; bu seviyenin 1,3758\u2019de bulundu\u011funu not ediyor.<\/p>\n
Scotiabank, k\u0131sa vadeli trendlerin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 daha fazla desteklemeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla USD\/CAD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadede ek y\u00fckseli\u015f riski oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Banka, 1,3800\u20131,3815 band\u0131nda diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye), daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direncin ise 1,38\u2019lerin \u00fcst\u00fc ile 1,39\u2019un d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinde (1,3900 civar\u0131) olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) 1,3715\u20131,3725 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Metinde, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131nda yine tan\u0131d\u0131k bir \u201cdefansif\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var; USD\/CAD yukar\u0131 itiliyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l adil de\u011fer tahmini 1,35 civar\u0131ndayken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu not etmi\u015ftik; benzer tablo bug\u00fcn yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim, normalde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 (CAD\/\u201cloonie\u201d) desteklemesi gereken temel etkenlere ra\u011fmen s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) artmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Statistics Canada verilerine g\u00f6re Nisan T\u00dcFE (enflasyon) %2,5\u2019e geriledi; bu da Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) Temmuz\u2019da faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon verileri ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) beklemede tutuyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak ABD ve Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faiz fark\u0131 (getiri fark\u0131) ABD dolar\u0131 lehine 60 baz puan\u0131n (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,01) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1,3725\u2019teki mevcut deste\u011fin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren fiyat\u0131) USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak makul bir tercih olabilir. Bu opsiyonlar, USD\/CAD\u2019nin 1,3800\/15 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f (short squeeze; sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015fin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131) ya\u015famas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Opsiyonda pe\u015fin \u00f6denen prim (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc f\u0131rsat sunarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riskin \u00e7er\u00e7evesini netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread (y\u00fckseli\u015f ama\u00e7l\u0131 iki opsiyonlu strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan (\u00f6r. 1,3850) ba\u015fka bir call satmak. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00fcst diren\u00e7 seviyelerine do\u011fru hareketten faydalan\u0131rken \u00f6denen primi azalt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finde 1,38\u2019lerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teknik engelin olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki analizimizden bu yana de\u011fi\u015fen \u00f6nemli unsur ham petrol fiyat\u0131; art\u0131k Kanada dolar\u0131na eskisi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek vermiyor. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) k\u00fcresel talep endi\u015feleriyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi; bu da Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir dayana\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece CAD, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan zay\u0131fl\u0131k: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tahvil getirileri ve istikrarl\u0131 petrol\/risk i\u015ftah\u0131na ra\u011fmen CAD geriliyor, USD\/CAD y\u00fckseliyor. Scotiabank adil de\u011feri 1,3504 g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 1,3800-1,3900 diren\u00e7. BoC indirimi, Fed sabr\u0131 fark\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47009\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}