ABD\u2019de bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi imzalanan, ancak devir\/teslim i\u015flemi hen\u00fcz tamamlanmayan konut al\u0131mlar\u0131) nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2 artt\u0131. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde bu oran %-1,1 idi.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7i\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki beklenmedik art\u0131\u015f, konut piyasas\u0131nda yeniden canlanmaya i\u015faret eden \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda eksi seviyeden %3,2 art\u0131ya ge\u00e7i\u015f, al\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcveninin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k konut kredisi (mortgage: uzun vadeli, konut teminatl\u0131 kredi) faizlerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce %6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesine ba\u011fl\u0131yoruz. Bu oran, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek seviyelerden d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda konutla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Konut \u00fcreticilerine odaklanan ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon: bir endeks ya da sekt\u00f6r sepetini takip eden yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, talepteki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye do\u011frudan maruz kalma sa\u011flayabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin XHB gibi fonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fon son bir ayda %4\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi; bu veri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu tablo faizler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) bu veriyi ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6rebilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131r. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler de izlenebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin TLT gibi Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, tahvil getirilerinin (faizlerin) haberle y\u00fckselmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge: portf\u00f6y\u00fc olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme) sa\u011flayabilir. Konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in ekonomiyi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle destekleme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen e\u011filimden farkl\u0131. 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine uyum s\u00fcreci konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut %3,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, piyasan\u0131n y\u00fcksek faizleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sindirdi\u011fine ve yeniden dengelendi\u011fine dair ilk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Konut cephesinde s\u00fcrpriz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: ABD bekleyen sat\u0131\u015flar nisanda y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2 artt\u0131; %-1,1\u2019den art\u0131ya ge\u00e7ti. Mortgage faizlerindeki gerileme talebi canland\u0131r\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in faiz indirim i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t