Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 4.464 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.482 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu, 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en zay\u0131f seviye. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, K\u00f6rfez liderlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrmesini istemesi \u00fczerine \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan \u201chemen\u201d sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Kabul edilebilir bir anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamazsa ABD ordusunun \u201ctam kapsaml\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in haz\u0131r kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de ekledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde olas\u0131 aksaman\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ve bunun enflasyonu art\u0131rmas\u0131 riskine odaklan\u0131yor. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131: K\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar ge\u00e7it; burada ya\u015fanacak sorun petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir.) CME FedWatch verisine g\u00f6re, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in en az bir kez 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131rma ihtimali yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bir hafta \u00f6nce bu oran %35\u2019ti. (Baz puan: Faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim; 25 baz puan = %0,25.)<\/p>\n
Tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 faizleri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k hazine tahvili faizi %4,60 civar\u0131nda ve bir y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n. (Tahvil faizi\/getiri: Tahvil fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e genellikle y\u00fckselir.) Y\u00fcksek faiz, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131r. Dolar Endeksi ise 99,33 civar\u0131nda ve bir ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n. (Dolar Endeksi: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks.)<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) 4.358 dolarda. (Basit hareketli ortalama: Son X g\u00fcn\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131; trend g\u00f6stergesi olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131r.) RSI 40, ADX 19 civar\u0131nda. (RSI: Fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; ADX: Trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er.) Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.705, 4.793 ve 4.850 dolar; destek 4.500 ve 4.358 dolar civar\u0131nda. (Destek\/diren\u00e7: Fiyat\u0131n durma veya geri d\u00f6nme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviyeler.)<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi. Yakla\u015fan g\u00fcndem: \u00c7ar\u015famba Fed toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, Per\u015fembe May\u0131s PMI verileri, Cuma Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni anketi. (PMI: Sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/ivme i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 bir g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil faizleri alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm temkinli ile zay\u0131f aras\u0131nda. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,60 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyeti\u201d y\u00fckseliyor; bu durum fiyat\u0131 Mart sonu diplerine do\u011fru itebilir. (F\u0131rsat maliyeti: Alt\u0131n yerine faiz getiren varl\u0131k tutarak elde edilebilecek kazan\u00e7.) T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) taraf\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n ya da yatay seyirden faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak veya ay\u0131 put spread kurmak. (Put opsiyonu: Fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filiminde olan opsiyon; ay\u0131 put spread: Bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc strateji.)<\/p>\n
4.358 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 ana destek olarak izliyoruz. Bunun alt\u0131na sarkma daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret eder; fiyat bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a daha geni\u015f trend teknik olarak bozulmu\u015f say\u0131lmaz. A\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f (short) pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r hedefinin bu kritik seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutulmas\u0131 daha temkinli olabilir. (Short: Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon.)<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131k, y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal talebin (merkez bankalar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131) g\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2023 ve 2024 boyunca y\u00fcksek alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131, uzun vadede fiyat i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Bu nedenle sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde al\u0131c\u0131 ilgisi tekrar artabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasada petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi, 2023\u2019teki d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde ilk faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015f, daha sonra odak jeopolitik risklere ve bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine (\u00fclkenin borcunu \u00e7evirebilme g\u00fcc\u00fc) kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funun (faiz art\u0131rmaya yak\u0131n, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 politika) alt\u0131n i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakereleri \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite\u201d (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k; opsiyon primlerine yans\u0131r) kritik. Piyasa \u015fu an enflasyona odaklansa da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli limana h\u0131zl\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7\u0131p alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bu da teminats\u0131z\/korumas\u0131z call satmay\u0131 (covered olmayan call yazmak; fiyat s\u0131\u00e7rarsa zarar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilen strateji) daha riskli k\u0131lar; beklenmedik bir haber sert y\u00fckseli\u015f getirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in Haziran veya Temmuz vadeli opsiyonlara bakabilir. 4.400 dolara do\u011fru hareketi hedefleyen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; ancak net bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f plan\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli. Fiyat 4.705 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine geri d\u00f6nerse, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini yitirir. (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama: K\u0131sa-orta vadeli trend g\u00f6stergesi.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm: Fiyat 4.482 dolara inerken Mart sonundan beri en zay\u0131f seviye g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil faizleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131 kuruyor; kritik destek 4.358.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47005\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}