USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yedinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi. Hareketi, genel ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 destekledi. Kur 159,18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Nisan sonundaki olas\u0131 \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d (yetkililerin kurdaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi durdurmak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) hamlesi sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen kay\u0131plar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu geri ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
160,00 seviyesi yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelince fiyat hareketleri (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) artt\u0131. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY 158,65\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi, sonra yeniden y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle temkinli kalmas\u0131yla destek buldu. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle ilerlemiyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc K\u00f6rfez liderlerinin bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine zaman tan\u0131nmas\u0131 talebi sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan acil sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, kabul edilebilir bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmazsa ABD ordusunun \u201ctam kapsaml\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sald\u0131r\u0131ya\u201d haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. (\u015eahin: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n duru\u015f.) Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Y\u00fcksek petrol, Yen i\u00e7in de olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya enerjide ithalata, \u00f6zellikle de Orta Do\u011fu kaynaklar\u0131na \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Japonya GSYH verisi (GSYH: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yeni destek getirmedi. Yine de veri, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kademeli \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 (s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma: faizlerin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve para ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi beklentilerini canl\u0131 tuttu.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de genel y\u00f6n yukar\u0131. Bunu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve jeopolitik gerilimlerin petrol\u00fc y\u00fckseltmesi destekliyor. Parite yeniden 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d almak (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) bu ivmeyi de\u011ferlendirme yolu olabilir. B\u00f6ylece \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli yakalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak 160,00 \u00e7evresinde \u00e7ok dikkatli olmak gerekir; buras\u0131 \u201cm\u00fcdahale tetik seviyesi\u201d olarak bilinir. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda Japon yetkililer yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde frenlemi\u015f, pariteyi ayn\u0131 seviyeden bir g\u00fcnde 5 yenden fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon (kurun y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan spot\/forward pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak risklidir; BoJ kaynakl\u0131 ani bir savunma hamlesi k\u00e2r\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca silebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201ccall spread\u201d kullanmakt\u0131r (spread: ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonu birlikte kullanmak). \u00d6rne\u011fin 160 call al\u0131p 162 call satmak. Bu yap\u0131, olas\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar ama ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi durumunda riski azalt\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece resmi m\u00fcdahale tehdidini dikkate al\u0131rken y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi korunur.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol\u00fcn yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmemeli, \u00f6zellikle de s\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 arz\u0131 (piyasaya gelen petrol miktar\u0131) tehdit ederken. Japonya ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; son veriler arz\u0131n %95\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, enerjinin pahal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde yeni daha da bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 bu paritede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. BoJ Mart 2024\u2019te negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 bitirmi\u015f olsa da Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ABD tahvil getirilerini (getiri: tahvilin faiz\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131) daha cazip tutuyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck fark, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelme te\u015fviki veriyor. (Bu i\u015fleme \u201ccarry trade\u201d denir: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak.)<\/p>\n
Siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve m\u00fcdahale tehdidi nedeniyle oynakl\u0131k artm\u0131\u015fken, keskin fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanan opsiyon i\u015flemleri etkili olabilir. \u201cStraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d almak (her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan opsiyon stratejileri) kurun yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareket etmesi durumunda f\u0131rsat sa\u011flar. M\u00fcdahale veya jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma gibi olaylar\u0131n her an ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ortamlarda bu yakla\u015f\u0131m daha mant\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY yedinci g\u00fcnde 159,18\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle y\u00fckselen petrol 160\u2019\u0131 yeniden masaya getirdi. M\u00fcdahale riski b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, call spread\/straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47000"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47000\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}