TD Securities, RBA\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 yay\u0131mlanan toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) yak\u0131n vadede **bekle-g\u00f6r** mesaj\u0131 olarak okuyor. Piyasalar, Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS; gecelik faiz \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) Haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tutanaklarda Kurul, May\u0131s\u2019taki **25 baz puanl\u0131k** (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015ftan sonra finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 (krediye eri\u015fim ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti gibi unsurlar) **bir miktar s\u0131k\u0131** g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Politika faizi (cash rate; RBA\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli ana faizi), RBA\u2019n\u0131n **nominal n\u00f6tr faiz** tahminine (ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne yava\u015flatan, enflasyon d\u00e2hil \u201cnormal\u201d seviye) **yak\u0131n ya da \u00fczerinde** olabilir diye tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kurul, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini not ediyor; bunu artan akaryak\u0131t maliyetlerine ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n irtibat program\u0131ndan (liaison programme; \u015firketlerle d\u00fczenli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden toplanan saha bilgisi) gelen geri bildirimlere ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcketiciye sat\u0131\u015f yapan firmalar\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n, gelecek 12 ayda ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verilerinin daha yayg\u0131n fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret edebilece\u011fi gerek\u00e7esiyle A\u011fustos\u2019ta yeni bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca akaryak\u0131t \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim vergisindeki (fuel excise duty) ge\u00e7ici indirimin, bir sonraki ayl\u0131k raporda Nisan y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019yi **0,5 puan** d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin beklendi\u011fini ekliyor.<\/p>\n
RBA tutanaklar\u0131, \u015fimdilik kenarda kalmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, politika faizinde bir s\u00fcre **dura\u011fanl\u0131k** y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli duru\u015f, son verilerle uyumlu. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki verilerde Westpac\u2013Melbourne Institute T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi Nisan\u2019da 82,4\u2019e gerileyerek hanelerin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Buna Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 %0,4 art\u0131\u015f da eklenince, Kurulun \u00f6nceki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n etkisini izlemek i\u00e7in duraklamas\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kurulun ana kayg\u0131s\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015f. Daha y\u00fcksek akaryak\u0131t maliyetlerinin ekonominin geneline yay\u0131lan fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haziran sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in takip edilmesi gereken temel risk bu.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenen i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri de bunu destekliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Nisan 2025 NAB \u0130\u015f Anketi, sat\u0131n alma maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n pandemi \u00f6ncesi ortalamalar\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, \u015firketlerin girdi maliyeti bask\u0131s\u0131 (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan mal ve hizmetlerin maliyeti) ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yabilece\u011fini ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle A\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6zellikle akaryak\u0131t vergisi indiriminin T\u00dcFE \u00fczerindeki ge\u00e7ici etkisi kaybolduktan sonra, yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev piyasalar (faiz beklentilerine g\u00f6re fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e ili\u015fkin faiz beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131ndan yararlanabilecek pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
2023\u2019te de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: RBA Nisan\u2019da ara verip, enflasyon beklenenden diren\u00e7li \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca art\u0131\u015flara yeniden d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu \u00f6rnek, bir duraklaman\u0131n veriler gerektirirse ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla talebi so\u011futma) d\u0131\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da enflasyon raporlar\u0131 geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 do\u011frularsa RBA\u2019n\u0131n yeniden ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA tutanaklar\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali veriyor: Haziran\u2019da art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 OIS\u2019te %20. Kurul ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseliyor; TD Securities T\u00dcFE\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46997\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}