Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 4.464 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.482 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu seviye 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini ve s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n makroekonomi (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) \u00fczerindeki etkilerini izledi.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin liderleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere daha fazla zaman istemesi sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan yak\u0131n vadeli bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fini belirtirken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde ABD ordusuna \u201ctam kapsaml\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in haz\u0131r kalma talimat\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasa, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki riskler ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu art\u0131rma ihtimaline odaklan\u0131yor. Bu da daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. (Para politikas\u0131: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131: Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi ve finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch Tool, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizleri en az 25 baz puan (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan) art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %35\u2019ti. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi (uzun vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma faizi) %4,60 civar\u0131nda ve bir y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) ise 99,33 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcndemde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed tutanaklar\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc May\u0131s PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi: \u015firketlerin sipari\u015f ve \u00fcretim e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7en erken g\u00f6sterge) ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Michigan \u00dcniversitesi anketi (t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni\/enflasyon beklentileri) var. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.358 dolar. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131; 50 alt\u0131 zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret edebilir) 40\u2019a yak\u0131n, ADX (trend g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer zay\u0131f trend demektir) 19 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 4.705, 4.793 ve 4.850 dolar; destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da tutunma seviyesi) 4.500 ve 4.358 dolar.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u201ct\u00fcretilmi\u015f\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu tablo, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 anlams\u0131z kalan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satman\u0131n veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine dayal\u0131 \u201cay\u0131 call spread\u201d (bear call spread: y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call alma, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satma ile kurulan, y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) stratejisinin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu sayede fiyat\u0131n 4.705 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki teknik direnci a\u015fmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim (opsiyon primi: s\u00f6zle\u015fme bedeli) elde edilmesi hedeflenir. Zay\u0131f ADX de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir trend olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yatay ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte getiri sa\u011flayan stratejilerin daha uygun olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ay\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) alt\u0131n pozisyonu i\u00e7in temel risk, \u0130ran\u2019la aniden sa\u011flanabilecek h\u0131zl\u0131 bir diplomatik uzla\u015f\u0131. Do\u011frulanabilir bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; bu da enflasyon beklentilerini azalt\u0131p tahvil faizlerini geri \u00e7ekebilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltarak sert bir toparlanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle odak, Fed tutanaklar\u0131 ve haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde gelecek May\u0131s PMI verilerinde. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya denk gelen 4.358 dolar seviyesi kritik destek \u00e7izgisi olarak izleniyor. Bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131, daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini (bearish trend: a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ana e\u011filim) teyit edebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sert geri \u00e7ekilme: 4.482 dolarla 30 Mart dipleri testte. ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisi, petrol-enflasyon-faiz beklentilerini y\u00fckseltti. FedWatch\u2019ta art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimali %50. 4.500\/4.358 destek, 4.705 diren\u00e7. Fed tutanaklar\u0131, PMI odakta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46988\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}