Japonya\u2019da yeni bir ek b\u00fct\u00e7e beklentisi, Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi\u2019nin Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na (hazine ve kamu maliyesinden sorumlu kurum) haz\u0131rl\u0131klara ba\u015flamas\u0131 talimat\u0131 vermesiyle artt\u0131. Takaichi daha \u00f6nce \u201cyedek \u00f6denekler (b\u00fct\u00e7ede ayr\u0131lan acil durum pay\u0131)\u201d yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeydi. Paketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 trilyon\u201310 trilyon yen aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konu\u015fuluyor; bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ek devlet tahvili ihrac\u0131yla (devletin bor\u00e7lanmak i\u00e7in yeni tahvil \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131) finanse edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Planlanan harcamalar\u0131n akaryak\u0131t ve elektrik desteklerine (fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in verilen devlet katk\u0131s\u0131) ve hanehalk\u0131 ile KOB\u0130\u2019lere (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketler) y\u00f6nelik daha geni\u015f enflasyon rahatlatma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha fazla tahvil arz\u0131 beklentisi, Japon devlet tahvili faizlerini (tahvil getirisi\/yield = tahvilin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz oran\u0131) yukar\u0131 itti; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %2,5\u2019in, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yen, uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri y\u00fckselirken ve daha y\u00fcksek bir \u201cmali risk primi\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n, kamu borcu ve b\u00fct\u00e7e riski i\u00e7in ek getiri talep etmesi) olu\u015furken zay\u0131flad\u0131. USD\/JPY, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n nisan sonu ve may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahalesinin (kurdaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) ard\u0131ndan yeniden 160\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun \u201cg\u00f6rece kontrol alt\u0131nda\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi nedeniyle Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bir sonraki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin %1,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni bir ek b\u00fct\u00e7enin, \u201cTakaichi i\u015flemleri\u201d olarak bilinen i\u015flemleri yeniden canland\u0131rabilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. Bu, yeni harcamalar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) ihrac\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Daha fazla kamu borcu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, yen \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ek tahvil arz\u0131 JGB getirilerini y\u00fckseltiyor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yak\u0131n zamanda %1,1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 10 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Artan mali risk primi, piyasalar\u0131n \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcnden endi\u015fe etmesi nedeniyle yeni bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu, normalde daha y\u00fcksek getirilerin yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekmesi beklenmesine ra\u011fmen ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle USD\/JPY kuru yeniden 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor; bu seviye psikolojik e\u015fik (piyasan\u0131n dikkat etti\u011fi yuvarlak seviye) olarak izleniyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ve 2024\u2019te, resmi m\u00fcdahalelerin yene sadece ge\u00e7ici destek sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut fiyatlama, bu m\u00fcdahalelerin yine ana e\u011filimi tersine \u00e7evirmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev = de\u011feri kur\/ faiz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi ile sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez m\u00fcdahale riskinin bir arada olmas\u0131 \u201cuzun opsiyon\u201d stratejilerini (opsiyon sat\u0131n almak; prim \u00f6denir, risk \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call = kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alman\u0131n, yenin daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yol sundu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu strateji 165\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalarken, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahale ederse kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda tabloyu de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi beklenmiyor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na acil ihtiyac\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131 = iki \u00fclkenin politika faizleri aras\u0131ndaki mesafe) geni\u015f olmas\u0131, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen ana unsur olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da \u201cgetiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesine\u201d (getiri e\u011frisi = vadeye g\u00f6re faizlerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131; dikle\u015fme = uzun vadeli faizlerin k\u0131sa vadeye g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi) y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyon da g\u00fcndemde. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fct\u00e7eyi finanse etmek i\u00e7in uzun vadeli tahvil ihra\u00e7 etmesi bekleniyor; bu da 20 ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerin k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu fark\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na \u201cfaiz swap\u0131\u201d (swap = sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya vadeli i\u015flemler (futures = ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00fczerinden pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler i\u00e7in ana risk, BoJ\u2019dan beklenmedik bir ton de\u011fi\u015fimi (ileti\u015fimde daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f; \u015fahin = daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sinyali) gelmesi olur. Piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sinyali, yende sert ve ani de\u011ferlenmeye neden olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tokyo\u2019da ek b\u00fct\u00e7e sinyali piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: 3\u201310 trilyon yenlik paket yeni tahvil ihrac\u0131yla JGB faizlerini s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131, \u201cmali risk primi\u201d artt\u0131, yen zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/JPY yeniden 160\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46985"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46985\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}