Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019nda (LME) bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi enflasyon endi\u015feleri, talep beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi de fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi korkusunu art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulayabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bak\u0131r, ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekilirken makro riskler (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, jeopolitik gibi geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli riskler) artt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen bak\u0131r, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 art\u0131da.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015f; teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden gelen talep, arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel arz\u0131 azaltabilecek olas\u0131 ABD g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri (ithalata ek vergi) beklentileriyle desteklenmi\u015fti. K\u0131sa vadede makro riskler s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e bak\u0131r\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bak\u0131rda kay\u0131plar\u0131n derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; piyasa ayn\u0131 anda birden fazla bask\u0131y\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gerilim ve \u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f imalat verileri k\u0131sa vadede olumsuz bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi de fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar baz\u0131nda fiyatlanan metal, di\u011fer para birimlerini kullanan al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu geri \u00e7ekilme, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geldi; fiyatlar daha ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerden d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Nisan 2026 enflasyon verisinin beklentiden s\u0131cak gelerek %3,6 a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha sert ad\u0131mlar atabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) bunun ard\u0131ndan 106,5 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasadaki \u201cenflasyon uzun s\u00fcrebilir\u201d kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de Nisan 2026 Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisi 49,8\u2019e geriledi. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 daralma sinyali) 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa daralmaya i\u015faret etti ve 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen sanayi talebi endi\u015felerini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu zay\u0131f veri ve emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen sorunlar, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck bak\u0131r al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131nda t\u00fcketimin yava\u015flayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasalarda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri emtia veya kur gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) bu ortam k\u0131sa vadede temkini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu bask\u0131n makro riskler nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alarak riskten korunmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir veya fiyat\u0131n 10.500 dolar\/ton destek seviyesine (destek: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde al\u0131m\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131lan seviye) do\u011fru hareketine oynayabilir. Artan oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) ortam\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) mevcut piyasa seviyesinin \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak da (out-of-the-money call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: fiyat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131p prim toplama) prim geliri yaratmak i\u00e7in se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, b\u00fcy\u00fck resmi unutmamak gerekiyor; bak\u0131r h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Veri merkezleri, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m dalgas\u0131 ve ye\u015fil enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli talep hik\u00e2yesi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2023 sonunda Cobre Panama madeninin beklenmedik kapanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n ne kadar k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bak\u0131r LME\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: \u0130ran gerilimi ve petrol enflasyon korkusunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken, \u00c7in PMI 49,8\u2019e indi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar talebi zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan beri \u00e7ift haneli art\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46984"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46984\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}