{"id":46980,"date":"2026-05-19T12:51:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T12:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ing-ecb-yeniden-fiyatlamasinin-yukari-yonu-sinirlamasiyla-eur-usdnin-11600-seviyesini-yeniden-test-edebilecegini-ongoruyor-yatirimcilar-opsiyon-stratejilerine-odaklaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T12:51:39","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T12:51:39","slug":"ing-ecb-yeniden-fiyatlamasinin-yukari-yonu-sinirlamasiyla-eur-usdnin-11600-seviyesini-yeniden-test-edebilecegini-ongoruyor-yatirimcilar-opsiyon-stratejilerine-odaklaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ing-ecb-yeniden-fiyatlamasinin-yukari-yonu-sinirlamasiyla-eur-usdnin-11600-seviyesini-yeniden-test-edebilecegini-ongoruyor-yatirimcilar-opsiyon-stratejilerine-odaklaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ING, ECB yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1600 seviyesini yeniden test edebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ING, EUR\/USD paritesinin (euro\/dolar kuru) daha fazla zay\u0131flamaya a\u00e7\u0131k kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede 1,1700\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften ziyade 1,1600 seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesinin daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. ING ayr\u0131ca Paris\u2019teki G7 zirvesinden (d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 7 ekonomisinin toplant\u0131s\u0131) \u00e7\u0131kacak geli\u015fmelerin piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinin beklenmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Notta, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) euro b\u00f6lgesinde uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerinin (uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmesini engellemek i\u00e7in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 dili) korumas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ifade edildi. Bunun EUR\/USD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn boyutunu s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi, ancak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131 ve ECB Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 \u015fu anda 2026 OIS e\u011frisinde (gecelik endeksli swap: politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentileri g\u00f6steren faiz takas\u0131 piyasas\u0131) ECB\u2019den toplam 73 baz puan (bp; baz puan, y\u00fczde 0,01) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; ING bu beklentiyi abart\u0131l\u0131 buluyor. Notta, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (K\u00f6rfez\u2019de kritik petrol ve ticaret ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik net bir yol g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar ECB\u2019nin bu beklentilere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n (piyasay\u0131 s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeyle d\u00fczeltmesinin) olas\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

2025\u2019teki analize d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, EUR\/USD\u2019nin toparlanmaktan \u00e7ok 1,1600\u2019\u00fc yeniden test etmesinin daha muhtemel oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Parite ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde 1,1580\u2019e yak\u0131n bir dip g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra taban buldu. Bu hareket, o d\u00f6nemdeki ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fle uyumluydu.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki \u015fahin duru\u015fu, beklendi\u011fi gibi faizleri kontrol etmek i\u00e7in bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimin azalmas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin tonunu yumu\u015fatmas\u0131na alan a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla %2,1\u2019e gerilemesiyle, piyasa daha \u00f6nce fiyatlanan abart\u0131l\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini do\u011fru \u015fekilde geri ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Olas\u0131 T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (t\u00fcrevi \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u00e7in bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f tablo, EUR\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 1,1750-1,1800 band\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamak i\u00e7in uygun bir strateji olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ECB\u2019nin daha n\u00f6tr konumu (ne a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131 ne de gev\u015fek duru\u015f) nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin zor oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Alternatif olarak, kademeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya da bant i\u00e7inde seyir bekleyenler i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread; biri sat\u0131n al\u0131nan di\u011feri sat\u0131lan iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. ABD\u2019de son istihdam verisinin Nisan\u2019da 210 bin yeni i\u015f g\u00f6stererek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, ECB ile politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 faiz yollar\u0131) s\u00fcrmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu durumun paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanma ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re EUR\/USD\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 1,1700 yerine 1,1600 yeniden g\u00fcndemde. G7 etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. ECB \u015fahinli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc frenleyebilir; 2026 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131. Opsiyonda call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bear put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46980\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}