USD\/JPY yedinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi, son dokuz seanstan sekizinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetti ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa sabah i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131yla 159,00\u2019un hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Dolara talep, jeopolitik belirsizlik ve piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 veya artmas\u0131) beklentisiyle desteklendi. Yen ise Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 ekonomik kayg\u0131lar nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen Japonya\u2019n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) beklentiden h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin talebi \u00fczerine \u0130ran\u2019a planlanan bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 \u015fimdilik erteledi\u011fini ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamazsa ABD ordusuna tam kapsaml\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131r olunmas\u0131 talimat\u0131 verildi\u011fini belirtti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (petrol sevkiyat\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) konusundaki soru i\u015faretleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, arz kesintileri nedeniyle Pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kald\u0131; bu da enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli faiz i\u015flemlerinden Fed beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; 0,25 y\u00fczde puan) Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olas\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kur destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131na (yetkililerin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi) dair beklentiler USD\/JPY\u2019de ek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in politika y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin sinyal i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (Fed toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japon yetkililerden yeni bir m\u00fcdahale (yeni g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc) ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok dikkatli olunmal\u0131. Parite 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda bu psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi ilk a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda birden fazla ve sert m\u00fcdahale g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tecr\u00fcbe, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeni bir tetikleyici olmadan pariteyi buradan belirgin \u015fekilde daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131makta isteksiz kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 i\u015flem) kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu tablo, 160,00 m\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgesinin hemen alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, riski kontrol ederek ek kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Di\u011fer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2r yazmayan) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satarak prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamakt\u0131r; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Fed ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) aras\u0131ndaki belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n paritede sert ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) ise, FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 sonras\u0131 her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in uzun straddle\u2019\u0131 (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem call hem put alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanma stratejisi) da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/yen 159 \u00fczerini test ederek 3 haftan\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fc: jeopolitik risk, petrol ve \u201cdaha \u015fahin Fed\u201d beklentisi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Ancak 160 band\u0131nda Japonya m\u00fcdahale riski ve FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46979"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46979\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}