Brent petrol\u00fc, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 m\u00fczakerelere f\u0131rsat vermek i\u00e7in durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 109,8 dolara geriledi. \u0130ran, son ABD teklifine yeni yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 Pakistan \u00fczerinden iletti. Arabulucular ise ate\u015fkesin \u201cpamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa ABD\u2019nin harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu belirtti. Piyasadaki tepki, fiyatlarda yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Washington, Rusya men\u015feli deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan ham petrol i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131m muafiyetini (normalde yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara tak\u0131lacak i\u015flemlere ge\u00e7ici izin) uzatt\u0131; bu ad\u0131m fiziki arz\u0131 (piyasaya ger\u00e7ekten teslim edilen petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131) destekledi. ABD\u2019de rezervlerin rekor d\u00fczeyde azalmas\u0131 stoklar\u0131 iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine itti; bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren olas\u0131 her yeni gerilime kar\u015f\u0131 daha hassas hale getirdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n temel s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (arz\u0131n talebi zor kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131) art\u0131k daha belirgin. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin resmi haftal\u0131k verisi), ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde 4,2 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Stoklar y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 alt\u0131na indi. Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR: ABD\u2019nin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu devlet petrol sto\u011fu) 1983\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede; bu da olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokunu (arz\u0131n kesilece\u011fi korkusu ya da kesintinin kendisi) kar\u015f\u0131layacak tamponun zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stok ortam\u0131nda, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 yaratabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar dalgalanma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Brent 118 dolar civar\u0131ndayken, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 125 dolar olan call opsiyonlar\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde \u00f6nemli y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli sunabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, m\u00fczakere haberiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedging: fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zarar s\u0131n\u0131rlama) da kritik. \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcrpriz bir anla\u015fma fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden 110 dolara do\u011fru itebilir. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar put spread kullanabilir: sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte al\u0131p satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan strateji.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deniz yoluyla ham petrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131m muafiyetinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131, arz\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 tutmaya yard\u0131m etti. Ancak bu muafiyetin gelecek ay yenilenmesi daha belirsiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Mevcut jeopolitik gerilim, muafiyetin uzat\u0131lmamas\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da piyasadan g\u00fcnde 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde arz\u0131n \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu unsur, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in stratejilerde ek bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 riski olarak dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde nefes kesen d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ertelemesiyle Brent %2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp 109,8 dolara indi. Ancak rekor stok erimesi ve Rus petrol muafiyeti belirsizli\u011fi, volatiliteyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Hedging \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46978\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}