AUD\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin ilk saatlerinde 0,7130-0,7125 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Parite, Pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k dip seviyenin hemen \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik belirsizlik ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 2026\u2019da faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Dolar\u0131n 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en y\u00fcksek seviyeden geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) May\u0131s toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, piyasada A\u011fustos\u2019ta bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ancak Avustralya dolar\u0131 bundan destek bulamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde AUD\/USD, 4 saatlik grafikte 100 d\u00f6nemlik \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korudu. Ayr\u0131ca Mart\u2013May\u0131s y\u00fckseli\u015finin %23,6 Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesinin (Fibonacci: olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan oranlar) alt\u0131nda seyretti. 14 d\u00f6nemlik RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7er) 32 civar\u0131nda, yani \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u201d b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrederken; MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif negatif ve yatay kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Destek seviyeleri 0,7108 civar\u0131ndaki %38,2 Fibonacci, ard\u0131ndan %50,0 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesindeki 0,7056 ve %61,8 seviyesine denk gelen 0,7004 civar\u0131 olarak izlendi. Diren\u00e7 0,7173, ard\u0131ndan 0,7187 seviyesinde; 0,7277 ise d\u00f6ng\u00fc zirvesi (cycle high: ilgili d\u00f6nemin tepe b\u00f6lgesi) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131; bu, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l daha \u00e7ok piyasa beklentisiydi. Nisan 2026 ABD enflasyonu %3,1 gelerek beklentilerin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (hawkish: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) destekledi. Bu durum, ABD dolar\u0131na temel destek sa\u011flamaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k RBA, A\u011fustos 2025\u2019teki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (tightening cycle: faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00f6nemi) ara verdi. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (GDP: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) zay\u0131f bir %0,2 oldu. Son istihdam raporunda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d, RBA\u2019n\u0131n ise daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 (policy divergence: iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde politika izlemesi) pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken ana tema haline geldi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki (commodity: demir cevheri, k\u00f6m\u00fcr gibi ham maddeler) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften de olumsuz etkileniyor. Demir cevheri fiyat\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 105 dolara geriledi; bu, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki seviyelere g\u00f6re belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu gerileme Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret kazanc\u0131n\u0131 (terms of trade: ihra\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithal fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131) zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve para birimi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bozar.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Spot fiyat\u0131n (anl\u0131k fiyat) 0,6850 civar\u0131nda gezindi\u011fi mevcut tabloda, opsiyon (options: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) taraf\u0131nda 0,6750 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. En kolay y\u00f6n (path of least resistance: bask\u0131n e\u011filim) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 taraf olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bir ayl\u0131k AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, piyasan\u0131n yeni hareketler bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. Yani trend a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olsa da sert ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan (momentum: hareketin h\u0131z\u0131) faydalan\u0131rken opsiyon maliyetini y\u00f6netebilen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7130\u2019da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fmesi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n temkini ve emtia d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; kritik destekler 0,7108-0,7056-0,7004, oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46972\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}