Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta (BK) i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi ba\u015fvurular\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim (claimant count change) Nisan\u2019da 26,5 bin oldu. Bu, 27,3 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri beklentiden 0,8 bin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu veri, a\u00e7\u0131klanan de\u011fi\u015fimi piyasa tahminiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
BK\u2019de Nisan ay\u0131na ait i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi ba\u015fvuru say\u0131s\u0131 verisi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 27.300 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 26.500 yeni ba\u015fvuru gelmesi, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha az ki\u015finin i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fine ba\u015fvurdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu diren\u00e7, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank of England) yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (Monetary Policy Committee) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirme ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (Office for National Statistics) verileri, enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak hesaplanan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (core inflation) %2,9\u2019da kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu nedenle, s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 Banka\u2019ya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizleri ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131) daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e veriyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum sterlin (pound sterling) i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilir. GBP\/USD (sterlin\/dolar) paritesinde al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon (call option) al\u0131nmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek BK faiz beklentileri sterlini dolara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca sterlin paritelerinde z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artabilir; bu da daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda ise k\u0131sa vadeli BK faizlerine dayal\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (short-sterling veya SONIA futures: gecelik faiz oran\u0131 SONIA\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclerek, piyasada yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Bu istihdam verisi, BK devlet tahvilleri (gilts) i\u00e7in olumsuzdur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Gilt vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (gilt futures) sat\u0131\u015f, getirilerin (yield: tahvil faizi) y\u00fckselmesi ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklentisine do\u011frudan pozisyon almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, BK hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir; \u00f6zellikle i\u00e7 piyasaya daha duyarl\u0131 FTSE 250\u2019de. Endekste koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: BK\u2019de Nisan claimant count art\u0131\u015f\u0131 26,5 binle 27,3 bin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; BoE\u2019nin erken faiz indirimi zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Sterlin ve volatilite desteklenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46965\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}