GBP\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3415 civar\u0131na geriledi. Sterlin, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasetindeki belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam raporunu izliyor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer, 7 May\u0131s\u2019taki zay\u0131f yerel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan liderlik kriziyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Bunu \u00fcst d\u00fczey istifalar ve piyasada sert dalgalanmalar izledi. Mali disipline (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanma) y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerle Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k devlet tahvili (gilt: \u0130ngiltere Hazine tahvili) getirileri 28 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
IMF (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7in bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fckseltti. Ancak siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 i\u00e7 belirsizli\u011fin harcama ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon verisi, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) duru\u015funu destekledi ve dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar), CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %35,0 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet istifalar\u0131 ve mali endi\u015feler sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren \u00fcr\u00fcn) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla ifade etmenin pratik bir yoludur.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri %5,5\u2019e yakla\u015farak 1998\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere geliyor. Bu, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda sert dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda opsiyon primi (opsiyonun maliyeti) y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in opsiyon almak pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131r; bu nedenle ay\u0131 put spreadi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki put opsiyonunu farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan kullanarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) gibi giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren y\u00f6ntemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3200 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru kademeli geri \u00e7ekilmeden fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam raporu en yak\u0131n tetikleyici. Zay\u0131f bir veri, pariteyi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iter. \u00d6te yandan son ABD enflasyon verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon) 3,6 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyretmesi dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. FedWatch g\u00f6stergesi izlenmeli; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa ortam\u0131, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k maliye politikalar\u0131na g\u00fcvenin sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u015foklara benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde \u201ccable\u201d (GBP\/USD paritesi) i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen dalgalanma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) %20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak sert hareket riskini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu nedenle siyasi risk primi (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen risk) piyasay\u0131 dalgal\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor tutabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\u2019de alarm: GBP\/USD 1,3415\u2019e indi. UK siyasi kriz ve mali kayg\u0131lar gilti 28 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131rken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu dolar\u0131 destekliyor; odak UK istihdam\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46958"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46958\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}