USD\/JPY pazartesi 159,00\u2019a do\u011fru zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve 158,80 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Yen lehine \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i bant yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 pipti (pip: kurun \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131). 30 Nisan\u2019da ba\u015flayan m\u00fcdahaleler (m\u00fcdahale: merkez bankas\u0131\/hazine taraf\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kura do\u011frudan etki) sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 piplik y\u00fckseli\u015fin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 geri verilmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da faizler h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nken, piyasalar enerjinin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi enflasyon nedeniyle ABD\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019la ilgili gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksama, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bu durum ABD\u2019de enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi Kazuyuki Masu, enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle faizlerin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. OECD, BoJ politika faizinin 2027 sonuna kadar %2\u2019ye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc 1\u00c7 GSYH verisi (GSYH: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 23:50 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Beklentiler \u00e7eyreklik %0,4 (\u00f6nceki %0,3), y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %1,7 (\u00f6nceki %1,3) ve deflat\u00f6r\u00fcn %3,1 (deflat\u00f6r: fiyatlar\u0131n genel seviyesini \u00f6l\u00e7en, enflasyonu g\u00f6steren endeks; \u00f6nceki %3,4) olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Fed\u2019in FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 (FOMC: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar organ\u0131) \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de gelecek. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) man\u015fette y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,5 ve \u00e7ekirdekte %1,8 (\u00e7ekirdek: oynak kalemlerin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon) civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Destek seviyeleri 158,50 ve 158,00; diren\u00e7 159,00, ard\u0131ndan 159,50 ve 160,00 olarak izleniyor. 15 dakikal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat 159,08 zirvesinden sonra 158,79\u2019dayd\u0131; Stochastic RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesini g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) 18 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat 158,83 civar\u0131nda; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (EMA: \u00fcstel hareketli ortalama, trende duyarl\u0131 ortalama) 158,14 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 155,40 \u00fczerinde. Tokyo, m\u00fcdahalenin s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z tekrarlanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent de destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re temel de\u011fi\u015fim, m\u00fcdahale tehdidinin art\u0131k \u201cvarsay\u0131m\u201d olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131; bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (oynakl\u0131k: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda yetkililerin 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde m\u00fcdahale yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan piyasa, kur yeni zirvelere yakla\u015f\u0131rken aniden 400 piplik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu biliyor. Bu risk, 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fcksek tutuyor; \u015fu anda %9,5 civar\u0131nda. Bu, opsiyonlar\u0131n ani ve beklenmedik hareket ihtimalini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine e\u015flik ederken azami zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. B\u00f6ylece spot piyasada (spot: anl\u0131k al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya ba\u011fl\u0131 maliyetlerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131r ve m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunursunuz. Bu opsiyonlar oynakl\u0131k nedeniyle pahal\u0131d\u0131r, ancak temel risk olan ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Kurun belirli bir bantta tutulaca\u011f\u0131na inananlar i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131k \u201csatmak\u201d (volatility selling: opsiyon satarak prim toplama) cazip olabilir. 165,00 \u00fczeri bir call spread (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131) ve 159,00 alt\u0131 bir put spread (put spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan yap\u0131) sat\u0131lan \u201ciron condor\u201d (iron condor: yukar\u0131da ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da iki spread satarak bantta kalma beklentisine oynanan opsiyon stratejisi), parite bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131k\u00e7a prim geliri sa\u011flar. Bu, resmi m\u00fcdahale tehdidi ve faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre gergin ama dengeli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yarataca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" M\u00fcdahale g\u00f6lgesinde USD\/JPY 158,80\u2019e geriledi; yen 6 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor ve 400 piplik s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 silindi. BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali, Fed\/jeopolitik enflasyon, kritik destek-direnci \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46950\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}