Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n elektronik kartla perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %2,7 ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Kartl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flardaki bu yava\u015flama, t\u00fcketici talebinin (hanehalk\u0131 harcama i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) \u00fczerindeki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle piyasan\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye (faiz indirimi e\u011filimine) kayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Resmi Nakit Faizi (Official Cash Rate\/OCR: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizi) \u015fu anda s\u0131k\u0131 seviyede %5,50\u2019de kal\u0131rken, bu veri Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. NZD\/USD paritesinin (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131 kuru) \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6120 seviyesinde seyretmesiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,6000 psikolojik destek seviyesinin test edilebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 NZD\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flama, faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerini (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de do\u011frudan etkiler. Piyasa RBNZ\u2019nin ileride gev\u015femeye gidece\u011fini (faiz indirebilece\u011fini) bekledik\u00e7e, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swap faizinin daha da gerilemesini beklemeliyiz. Swap faizi (iki taraf\u0131n belirli bir s\u00fcre faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin piyasa faizi) ge\u00e7en hafta itibar\u0131yla zaten %4,95\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu durum piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 50 baz puan\u0131n (1 baz puan = %0,01; 50 baz puan = %0,50) \u00fczerinde faiz indirimi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerinin ard\u0131ndan \u201ckiwi\u201d dolar (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) Avustralya dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geride kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde NZD\/AUD \u00e7apraz kuru (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131\/Avustralya dolar\u0131) takip eden iki ayda %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu \u00f6rnek, NZD\u2019de yeniden g\u00f6rece zay\u0131fl\u0131k aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in NZX 50 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisi destekleyici olsa da, zay\u0131f perakende performans\u0131 \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan bask\u0131lar. Daha koruyucu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar, \u00f6rne\u011fin endekste \u00f6nemli pay\u0131 olan iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim hisselerinde (zorunlu olmayan harcamalara duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r) put opsiyonu almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da kartl\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nisanda %2\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131: T\u00fcketim so\u011fuyor, RBNZ\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor. NZD\/USD\u2019de 0,6000 testi, swaplarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve put opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}