Euro, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde %0,26 y\u00fckseldi. EUR\/USD, 1,1608\u2019den toparlanarak 1,1654 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasa havas\u0131 n\u00f6tr kald\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 seans\u0131 etkiledi. Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 erteleyeceklerini s\u00f6yledi. Bu s\u0131rada WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD enflasyon verileri, piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi yerine daha y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131na (piyasa fiyatlar\u0131na dahil etmesine) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi (devletin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldikten sonra 1 baz puan (0,01 puan) d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,585\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
Prime Terminal verileri, 2026 sonuna do\u011fru ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50 g\u00f6sterdi. Chicago Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Austan Goolsbee, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ise istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; faiz indiriminin enflasyonu yeniden yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, 22 May\u0131s\u2019ta Beyaz Saray\u2019da yemin etmesi bekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00f6nemli bir veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoktu; ancak Reuters anketi, haziranda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve en az bir ek art\u0131\u015f daha beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD i\u00e7in diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye), 200-, 100- ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) olan 1,1681, 1,1703 ve 1,1707 civar\u0131nda. Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatan seviye) 1,1600\u2019de; ard\u0131ndan 1,1505 izleniyor. Diren\u00e7ler 1,1750\/1,1760 ile 1,1800 \u00e7evresinde.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ertelenmesi ge\u00e7ici bir sakinlik sunuyor, ancak bunu jeopolitik risk kaynakl\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) fiyatlamaya bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6rmek gerekir. Petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi OVX (petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) bu ay %15 y\u00fckseldi; bu, gerilimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Durum yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131rsa ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya enerji ETF\u2019leri (bir endeksi\/varl\u0131k grubunu takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131) \u00fczerine opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haziranda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00f6zellikle Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) son verilerde %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bunu destekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ECB\u2019den en az iki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da euronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destek bulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu tablo, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) uzun EUR pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (euronun de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki pozisyon) korunmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in as\u0131l belirsizlik, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n bu cuma Fed\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7mesi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir tutuma (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ge\u00e7i\u015f, ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlardaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) enflasyonun %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan geliyor; bu y\u00fczden Goolsbee\u2019nin s\u00f6zleri \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki belirsizlik, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ilgi \u00e7ekici k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flemler bu teknik seviyelerle kurgulanabilir. 1,1707\u2019deki hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran strateji) kurmak, 1,1800\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan (direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) faydalanabilir. \u00d6te yandan 1,1600 alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak, 1,1505\u2019teki nisan dibine do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan belli) korunma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla 1,1654\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; \u0130ran gerilimi ve petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019de \u015fahin sinyaller, Warsh belirsizli\u011fi ve ECB\u2019nin olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019de volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46942\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}