Sterlin, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin yerel se\u00e7im sonucunun ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artarken Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Rakip olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Andy Burnham, ba\u015fbakan olursa Maliye Bakan\u0131 Rachel Reeves\u2019in mali kurallar\u0131n\u0131 (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini ve bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 gibi kamu maliyesi k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131) de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
GBP\/USD, 1,3302 ile son haftalar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test ettikten sonra 1,3414\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Burnham\u2019\u0131n ekibiyle ili\u015fkilendirilen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, devletin ekonomiye daha fazla m\u00fcdahalesi ve daha y\u00fcksek kamu harcamas\u0131 beklentileriyle \u0130ngiliz devlet tahvilleri (Gilt; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Hazine tahvilleri) y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n
ABD hisseleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ABD\u2019li yetkilinin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131na ge\u00e7ici muafiyet tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair haberleri yalanlamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) %3,21 y\u00fckseldi ve varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100,00 dolar\u0131n yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da (kendisine ait sosyal medya platformu) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Price Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) bu y\u0131l en az iki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131. <\/p>\n
BoE politika yap\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 Megan Greene, Banka\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131 aniden yukar\u0131 iten etkiler) ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaymamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Yakla\u015fan g\u00fcndemde ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, konu\u015fmalar ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin etmesi ile birlikte, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam verileri ve BoE konu\u015fmalar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte GBP\/USD 1,3434 seviyesindeydi; 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama; fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) 1,3430 civar\u0131nda topland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 1,3608 yak\u0131n\u0131ndayd\u0131. RSI (14) (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 46 seviyesindeydi. <\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta siyasi belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve o d\u00f6nem Ba\u015fbakan olan Starmer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatma \u00e7abalar\u0131, sterline 1,34 civar\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli destek sa\u011flad\u0131. 2025\u2019teki bu geli\u015fmelerden sonra daha zorlu ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm GBP\/USD paritesini (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itti; \u015fu anda 1,27 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz BoE\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015fu (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi) bir dizi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131 ve politika faizini 5,25% seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ancak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyon art\u0131k %2,3 iken, ABD\u2019deki %3,4\u2019\u00fcn belirgin alt\u0131nda. Bu nedenle piyasa, BoE\u2019nin Fed\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirimine gidece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi), sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini bask\u0131layan temel unsurlardan biri. <\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan jeopolitik gerilimler \u015fimdilik zay\u0131flad\u0131. WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 79 dolar civar\u0131nda daha istikrarl\u0131 bir aral\u0131\u011fa geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu da Megan Greene gibi politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 endi\u015felendiren enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki faiz farklar\u0131na (iki \u00fclkenin faiz getirisi aras\u0131ndaki fark) kayd\u0131. <\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon gibi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\u2019de olas\u0131 zay\u0131flamaya g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. BoE\u2019nin daha g\u00fcvercin bir tona (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine indirime yak\u0131n, daha gev\u015fek politika) y\u00f6nelmesi beklenirken, GBP\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunabilir; \u00f6zellikle de ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki siyasi dalgalanma zirvelerinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken. Yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam verileri kritik olacak; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan-i\u015fveren dengesi) zay\u0131flama sinyali, BoE faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin s\u00fcrpriz siyasi ba\u015fl\u0131klarla g\u00fc\u00e7 buldu: Starmer bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, Burnham mali disiplin mesaj\u0131 verdi. GBP\/USD 1,34\u2019te. Giltler y\u00fckselirken petrol 100 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131; piyasa BoE-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46939\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}