ABD\u2019nin toplam net TIC (Hazine\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye hareketleri takibi) ak\u0131mlar\u0131 martta 150,7 milyar dolara geriledi; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde 184,5 milyar dolard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veriler, Hazine\u2019nin Treasury International Capital (TIC) sistemiyle izledi\u011fi toplam net s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda 33,8 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Mart verisi s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi; yani ay genelinde \u00fclkede net sermaye giri\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Rakamlar, ABD i\u00e7in toplam net TIC ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve son ay\u0131 bir \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan seviyeye g\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Martta net TIC ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 150,7 milyar dolara d\u00fc\u015fmesi, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na (hisse, tahvil gibi) ilgisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Giri\u015f pozitif kalsa da yava\u015flama \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ayl\u0131k gerileme. Bu da y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu e\u011filim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131 ve Hazine tahvillerine deste\u011fin ne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu sorgulat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ncelik ABD dolar\u0131nda: yabanc\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131, dolara talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin y\u00fczde 3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faiz indirimi konusunda isteksiz, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 tutum) korumas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; ancak bu, 2025\u2019teki kadar sermaye \u00e7ekmiyor. Bu nedenle dolar endeksini izleyen ETF\u2019lerde \u201cput\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan opsiyon) veya USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) gibi stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, Hazine tahvili getirilerini (faiz oran\u0131) yukar\u0131 itebilir. Yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131 daha az al\u0131c\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fck yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara kal\u0131r; onlar da arz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri talep edebilir. Bu ortamda VIX \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan opsiyon) veya iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) \u00fczerinde \u201cbear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan opsiyon kombinasyonu) gibi ara\u00e7lar de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc getirilerde d\u00fczensiz bir y\u00fckseli\u015f piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu trend, de\u011ferlemeleri destekleyen likiditenin (piyasadaki al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc) bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 azaltan \u00f6nemli bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r. S&P 500 ocaktan bu yana y\u00fczde 8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; ancak CFTC (ABD Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu) verileri, kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc toplam pozisyon fazlas\u0131) be\u015f ay sonra ilk kez azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle Nasdaq 100\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131 daha ucuz put) ile korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 teknoloji hisseleri uzun vadeli faizlerdeki de\u011fi\u015fime daha hassast\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019nin mart TIC net giri\u015fleri 150,7 milyar dolara indi; iki ayl\u0131k yava\u015flama yabanc\u0131 talebin so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum dolar deste\u011fini sorgulat\u0131rken, tahvil getirilerinde oynakl\u0131k ve hisse piyasas\u0131nda hedge ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46938"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46938\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}