ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131yla 99,10 seviyesine do\u011fru geriledi. Beyaz Saray\u2019dan bir yetkili, Senato\u2019nun Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresini onaylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin ettirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin olarak Axios, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n son teklifini \u201canla\u015fma i\u00e7in yetersiz\u201d g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131. Trump, Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve BAE liderlerinden gelen \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar sonras\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc planlanan ABD askeri sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 durdurma talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Tasnim, m\u00fczakereler s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak gev\u015fetmeyi (yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine azalt\u0131lmas\u0131\/ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131) kabul etti\u011fini, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ise yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n tamamen kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 (tam kald\u0131rma) istemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Bu ad\u0131mlar, \u201ckorunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 elde tutulan varl\u0131k\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kay\u0131ptan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in tercih edilen liman varl\u0131k) olarak ABD dolar\u0131na olan talebin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD 1,1640\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi, GBP\/USD 1,3420 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc, USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019a y\u00f6neldi ve AUD\/USD 0,7160\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. WTI petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 102,30 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, alt\u0131n 4.559 dolar civar\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler aras\u0131nda Avustralya Westpac g\u00fcven endeksi ve RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu verileri, ABD ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (resmi tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam \u00f6ncesi \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam g\u00f6stergesi) ve bekleyen konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (imzalanan ancak hen\u00fcz kapanmayan konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131), ayr\u0131ca 19 May\u0131s\u2019ta Kanada enflasyonu yer al\u0131yor. 22 May\u0131s\u2019a kadar \u00c7in faiz kararlar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu, Japonya T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi), Almanya GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) ve ABD Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni (University of Michigan anketi) gibi veriler de takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fcndemi olu\u015fturan ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakereleri ve petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 endi\u015felerinin yerini, k\u00fcresel talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne daha duyarl\u0131 bir piyasa ald\u0131. West Texas Intermediate ham petrol\u00fc \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81 dolar civar\u0131nda; bu seviye o d\u00f6nemdeki 102 dolar\u0131n belirgin alt\u0131nda. Bu gerilemede, EIA\u2019n\u0131n (Energy Information Administration\/ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi) ge\u00e7en hafta 2,1 milyon varillik beklenmedik stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (depolardaki petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) g\u00f6stermesi etkili oldu. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD ve Avrupa PMI (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma sinyali) verilerinde t\u00fcketici talebinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretleri izlemeli. Bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret edebilece\u011finden, put opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kullan\u0131lan opsiyon) bir \u201chedge\/korunma\u201d arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Japon Yeni belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f, USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u201cPolitika normalle\u015fmesi\u201d (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) endi\u015feleri o h\u0131zda tam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 (bankalar\u0131n mevduat\u0131n\u0131n belirli k\u0131sm\u0131na eksi faiz uygulanmas\u0131) sonland\u0131rsa da ABD ile olan geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 Yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; USD\/JPY 156,50 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. Resmi m\u00fcdahale riski (yetkililerin kura do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi) devam etti\u011finden, USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak, \u201ccarry trade\u201de (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle ta\u015f\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.559 dolar gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, jeopolitik korku ve enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zirvesini yans\u0131t\u0131yordu. Bug\u00fcn alt\u0131n 2.415 dolar civar\u0131nda daha dengeli bir seviyede i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; rol\u00fc \u201cenflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\u201ddan (enflasyon y\u00fckselince de\u011ferini koruma) \u00e7ok, \u201creel faizlere duyarl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman\u201da (enflasyon etkisi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faizler y\u00fckselince alt\u0131n genelde bask\u0131lan\u0131r) kayd\u0131. Bu hafta \u0130ngiltere ve Kanada\u2019dan gelecek ana enflasyon verilerinde s\u00fcrprizler, faiz beklentilerini (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na dair beklentisi) de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir. Bu nedenle \u201cstraddle\u201d stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alarak y\u00f6n de\u011fil oynakl\u0131k hedefleme) olas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi risk duyarl\u0131 para birimleri 2025\u2019te iyile\u015fen alg\u0131yla y\u00fckseliyordu; ancak tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale geldi. Avustralya dolar\u0131 art\u0131k genel \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201dndan (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) \u00e7ok, \u00c7in ekonomisinin durumuna ba\u011fl\u0131. Son sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri \u00c7in\u2019de yava\u015flaman\u0131n beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da AUD\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fleri kovalamak yerine, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 yakla\u015fan \u00c7in verilerindeki olas\u0131 olumsuz s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccollar\u201d (bir yandan put al\u0131p di\u011fer yandan call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve getiri band\u0131 olu\u015fturan opsiyon yap\u0131s\u0131) ile korumay\u0131 daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY 99,10\u2019a \u00e7ekilirken g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim ve ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda;yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015femesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman dolar talebi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Pariteler y\u00fckseldi, petrol yatay; kritik veri takvimi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46937\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}