7 May\u0131s\u2019ta S&P 500 7.340 seviyesine yak\u0131nken, g\u00fcncellemede endeksin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dalgan\u0131n (gri W-iii) sonuna ya da nihai be\u015finci dalgaya yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u201crallinin ge\u00e7 evre\u201d riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
O tarihten bu yana endeks 7.356\u2019ya kadar gerileyerek, g\u00fcncellemeden sonraki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 geri verdi. Ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe 7.517\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirveye kadar dokuz adet mavi dalga olu\u015fturdu ve %323,6\u2013%361,8 Fibonacci uzatma (Fibonacci Extension: \u00f6nceki hareketin boyuna g\u00f6re, olas\u0131 hedef seviyelerini y\u00fczdesel olarak g\u00f6steren teknik seviye) b\u00f6lgesine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Metinde, %123\u2013%161,8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dalga i\u00e7in daha tipik bir hedef oldu\u011fu, %323,6\u2013%361,8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ise \u201cuzayan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dalgalarda\u201d (extended third wave: normalden daha uzun s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131) daha s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade ediliyor. Be\u015finci dalgalar\u0131n (fifth wave: bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n son itki dalgas\u0131) ise daha \u00e7ok %176,4\u2013%200\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilerek, daha geni\u015f siyah W-3 yerine ye\u015fil W-5 i\u00e7indeki gri W-iii\u2019de zirvenin olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca rallide advance\/decline line (y\u00fckselen\/gerileyen hisse say\u0131s\u0131 fark\u0131: piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) taraf\u0131nda kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve fiyat\u0131n tepki vermesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 hafta s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. 13 May\u0131s\u201310 Haziran 2024 ile biten haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6nceki 4 haftal\u0131k uyumsuzlu\u011fu (divergence: fiyat yeni zirve yaparken g\u00f6stergenin bunu teyit etmemesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5\u2019lik ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fin, ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019luk d\u00fczeltmenin izledi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7er\u00e7eve, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc dalga geri \u00e7ekilmesinin (grey W-iv: y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fczeltme) 7.310\u20137.420\u2019ye olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini; ard\u0131ndan be\u015finci dalga rallisinin (grey W-v: son y\u00fckseli\u015f itki dalgas\u0131) %376,4\u2013%400,0 uzatma b\u00f6lgesine, yani 7.650\u20137.720\u2019ye gidebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Sonras\u0131nda ise 1000 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 (bear market: uzun s\u00fcreli ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6nemi) projekte ediliyor.<\/p>\n
S&P 500, 7.310-7.420 hedef destek (support zone: al\u0131mlar\u0131n artarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi fiyat band\u0131) b\u00f6lgemize \u00e7ekilerek may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dipleri test etti. Bu geri \u00e7ekilmeyi k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi) pozisyon i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan strateji) kurmak, beklenen son ralliden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Endeksin, son bir be\u015finci dalga y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc dalga geri \u00e7ekilmesinde olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Analizimiz, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 7.650-7.720 hedefini i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, bir s\u00fcredir olu\u015fan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, piyasa i\u00e7 g\u00f6stergeleriyle (market internals: piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi ve volatilite gibi \u201carka plan\u201d verileri) de destekleniyor. CBOE VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi: piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli korku\/oynakl\u0131k beklentisi) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti ve ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 15,2\u2019de kapatt\u0131; bu da geri \u00e7ekilmenin panik kaynakl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca hisse senedi put\/call oran\u0131 (korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu talebinin al\u0131m opsiyonuna oran\u0131; y\u00fckselmesi \u201ckorunma\u201d iste\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,68\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr art\u0131\u015flar, k\u0131sa vadeli diplerde s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu tablo, rallinin tabana yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 daral\u0131rken mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle 7.650-7.720 hedef b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken stratejinin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi gerekebilir. Koruyucu put (protective put: eldeki pozisyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu almak) ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu ile maliyeti azaltan strateji) ile beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. 1000 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde beklenen geri \u00e7ekilme, do\u011fru konumlananlar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S&P 500\u2019de final ralli mi, f\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik mi? Fibonacci uzamalar\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi 7.650-7.720 hedefini, ard\u0131ndan 1000+ puanl\u0131k sert d\u00fczeltme riskini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46935\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}