Standard Chartered, ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan Tayvan\u2019\u0131n 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %7,6\u2019dan %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. \u00d6nc\u00fc (ilk) tahmine g\u00f6re 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %13,7, \u00e7eyreklik bazda %2,8 oldu; bu, 1987\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7leri olarak yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 talep ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat g\u00f6steriliyor. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin nakit destekleri ve teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckselen hisse fiyatlar\u0131yla destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bunun nedeni, \u201cbaz etkisi\u201d (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n, bu y\u0131l y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 daha zorla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131) kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle 4\u00c7\u2019de ihracat ve GSYH \u00fczerinde etkili olmas\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l politika faizini %2\u2019de tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon risklerinin ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 talep nedeniyle daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
%9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, Tayvan varl\u0131klar\u0131nda olumlu (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) duru\u015fu korumak i\u00e7in net bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrpriz ve 1987\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, \u201cAI s\u00fcper d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn\u201d (yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep yaratmas\u0131) reel ekonomiye yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckselen piyasadan faydalanan stratejileri destekliyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin TAIEX endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak gibi.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm piyasaya b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. TAIEX y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 31.000 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu hareketin ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) \u015firketleri oldu. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan Nisan ihracat sipari\u015fleri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %19 artt\u0131. 2020\u2019de 5G yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde de benzer fakat daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 y\u0131l s\u00fcren bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Tayvan dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Para birimi, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kritik 29,5 seviyesinin alt\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 teknoloji d\u00fczeltmesinin (sert geri \u00e7ekilmenin) ard\u0131ndan bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, temelde ger\u00e7ek talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha fazla de\u011fer kazanc\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanabilir; ancak merkez bankas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131na dikkat etmek gerekiyor. 2025 sonundaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek baz etkisi, y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 daha az \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 hale getirecek. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n anlaml\u0131 olabilece\u011fini, ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 4\u00c7\u2019ye kadar uzun vadeli kontrat (uzun futures pozisyonu: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan vadeli i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131mak yerine 3\u00c7 vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 tercih etmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini %2\u2019de sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerinde (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) belirgin f\u0131rsatlar beklenmiyor. Bu istikrar hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu, ancak tahvil piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi %2,8 ile bankan\u0131n rahat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor, ancak politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini zorlayacak kadar y\u00fcksek de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tayvan\u2019da 1\u00c7 GSYH 1987\u2019den beri rekor k\u0131r\u0131nca Standard Chartered 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %9,5\u2019e \u00e7ekti. AI talebi ve ihracat destekli; 2Y\u2019de baz etkisiyle tempo d\u00fc\u015febilir. TAIEX, TWD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46934\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}