Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert dalgalanmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Katayama, finansal piyasalarda k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat ama\u00e7l\u0131 (spek\u00fclatif) hareketler g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Katayama, Fransa\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen G7 Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan konu\u015ftu. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fini ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa (h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert fiyat hareketlerine) kar\u015f\u0131 uygun ad\u0131mlar ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Katayama, G7 ortaklar\u0131na k\u00fcresel dengesizlikleri d\u00fczeltmek i\u00e7in ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cMythos\u201d ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 risklerin ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini, G7\u2019nin gelecek ayki zirve \u00f6ncesinde at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Katayama, G7\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019in kritik minerallerdeki ihracat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131na (baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin d\u0131\u015f sat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan kurallar) kar\u015f\u0131 ortak duru\u015f sergilemesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G7 bildirisinde (toplant\u0131 sonunda yay\u0131mlanan ortak metin) kritik minerallerin fiyatland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir ifadeye yer verilmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Katayama, G7\u2019nin tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ce\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc\u201d (birlikte) bir ad\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndemine almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Her \u00fclkenin kendi piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan sorumlu oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Katayama, Ba\u015fbakan Takaichi\u2019nin planlanan ek b\u00fct\u00e7enin nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011fi ve risklerin nas\u0131l azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusunda de\u011ferlendirme yapmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Rakam ya da takvim payla\u015fmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda belirgin bir gerilim i\u015fareti g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslim edilmek \u00fczere \u015fimdiden yap\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) bu \u00e7eyrekte 15 dolarl\u0131k geni\u015f bir bantta dalgaland\u0131 ve son olarak 98 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oynakl\u0131k, USD\/JPY gibi d\u00f6viz paritelerine de yans\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oynakl\u0131k (son 30 g\u00fcnde fiilen g\u00f6r\u00fclen dalgalanma) %14\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye 2024\u2019teki \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d kayg\u0131lar\u0131ndan (merkez bankas\u0131\/otoritenin kura do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi beklentisi) bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6vizde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m at\u0131labilece\u011fine dair uyar\u0131lar ciddiye al\u0131nmal\u0131. Ancak h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeni bir b\u00fct\u00e7eyi finanse etme ihtiyac\u0131 da var. Bu durum bir \u00e7eli\u015fki yarat\u0131yor: Yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa bile, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131sa s\u00fcrebilir. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
G7\u2019nin tahvil piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 destekleme konusunda ortak bir \u00e7izgide olmamas\u0131, para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fclkelerin faiz ve likidite politikalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesi) s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvilleri ile Japon devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 (faiz fark\u0131) 400 baz puan\u0131n (1 baz puan = %0,01) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu ortam, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yen satmay\u0131 \u201ccarry trade\u201d a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri arama stratejisi).<\/p>\n
Piyasalardaki belirsizlik, jeopolitik ve sistemik risklerle (t\u00fcm finansal sistemi etkileyebilecek riskler) art\u0131yor. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) \u201cMythos\u201d riski ve \u00c7in\u2019in mineraller \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcne dair endi\u015felerle 22\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla (hedge) VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya ana endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) gibi sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in ihracat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131, sanayi metalleri ve ilgili hisseleri do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Galyum ve germanyum fiyatlar\u0131, Pekin\u2019in \u015eubat 2026\u2019daki son a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan bu yana %35 artt\u0131. Bu durum, bu girdilere \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan yar\u0131 iletken ve elektrikli ara\u00e7 (EV) \u00fcreticilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 (ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti, negatif senaryo) g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n Petrol \u015foklar\u0131 yen piyasas\u0131n\u0131 vuruyor: Japonya, FX\u2019te a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahale sinyali verdi. G7 k\u00fcresel dengesizlikler ve \u00c7in\u2019in kritik minerallerine odaklan\u0131rken, tahvillerde e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm yok; carry trade bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46933\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}