Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve tahvil faizlerinin y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131yla, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra yatay seyretti. XAU\/USD 4.541 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) %0,20 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,06\u2019ya geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi (10 y\u0131l vadeli ABD Hazine tahvilinin getirisi) %4,631\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %4,595\u2019e indi. Hisse senetleri ise g\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k tamamlad\u0131. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar, Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini %50 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019la ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve m\u00fczakereler s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fine dair haberin ard\u0131ndan geriledi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI: ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, petrol ile ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etme e\u011filimi (korelasyon: iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket etme derecesi) nedeniyle dolar da zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir veri a\u00e7\u0131klanmad\u0131. Ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ge\u00e7en haftaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon verilerini de\u011ferlendirmeye devam etti. Bu hafta ajandada ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; burada 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama), konut verileri, FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurulun toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131), i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomik faaliyetin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren anket), Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ve Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin edece\u011fine dair haberler yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan (grafik ve g\u00f6stergelere dayal\u0131 fiyat analizi), alt\u0131n 4.480 dolardaki yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.550 dolar civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret etti. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler: 4.600, 4.615-4.625, 4.647, 4.700, 4.716, 4.550, 4.500 ve 4.481 dolar.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor al\u0131m oldu. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder (ters korelasyon: biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi).<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda alt\u0131n, z\u0131t etkiler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisinin %4,2 ile y\u00fcksek gelmesi, Fed\u2019i \u201c\u015fahin\u201d pozisyonda (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen tutum) tutuyor. Bu da piyasada Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %50 olarak fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k (getiri \u00fcretmeyen: kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi olmayan) olan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz unsur.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta kritik. \u015eahinli\u011fiyle bilinen Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak yemin etmesi, daha sert bir politika duru\u015funa i\u015faret edebilir. Verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Mart 2026\u2019da 250 bini a\u015fan istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve Fed\u2019e enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi \u00f6ne alma alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verileri, bu \u015fahin e\u011filimi teyit edecek sinyaller a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in duru\u015funa ra\u011fmen ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; DXY\u2019nin 99,06\u2019ya gerilemesi alt\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli destek verdi. Bu dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131smen, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015feyebilece\u011fine dair haberlerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Bu jeopolitik belirsizlik, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin artmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla alt\u0131na talebi destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem taraf\u0131nda, alt\u0131n 4.600-4.625 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin (diren\u00e7: y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon t\u00fcr\u00fc) almay\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarda (vadeli i\u015flem\/futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) a\u00e7may\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek 4.480 dolar civar\u0131ndaki dipleri hedefleyebilir. Psikolojik 4.500 dolar seviyesinin (psikolojik seviye: yuvarlak rakamlar\u0131n piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nem kazanmas\u0131) korunamamas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini teyit eder.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n yo\u011fun veri takvimi ve yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanma e\u011filimi) artmas\u0131 beklenir. Straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejisi (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc strateji: hem al\u0131m\/call hem sat\u0131m\/put opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma), fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fi belirsizken etkili olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ve PMI verileri kaynakl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 risk dengelemesi (hedge: olumsuz riski azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon) sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki k\u0131r\u0131lma da unutulmamal\u0131: enflasyon beklenenden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca Fed gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermi\u015fti. Bu d\u00f6nem, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentisinden faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015fesine ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Mevcut durum benzer; bu da temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor ve alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u201csat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131\u201d olarak kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik hafta: Dolar zay\u0131flasa da tahvil faizi y\u00fcksek. XAU\/USD 4.541\u2019de yatay; 4.600-4.625 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019de \u015fahin beklenti %50. Veriler\/Warsh volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir. 4.500 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.480 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46930\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}