Axios\u2019un Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, k\u0131demli bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayanarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye sundu\u011fu son teklif Beyaz Saray taraf\u0131ndan \u201canla\u015fma i\u00e7in yetersiz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 haber ajans\u0131 Tasnim, m\u00fczakere ekibine yak\u0131n bir kayna\u011fa dayanarak ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini yazd\u0131. Haberde, bunun \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m kald\u0131rma olaca\u011f\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ise ABD taahh\u00fctleri kapsam\u0131nda t\u00fcm yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Haberlerin ard\u0131ndan WTI petrol fiyat\u0131 art\u0131ya ge\u00e7ti; varil ba\u015f\u0131na 102,76 dolara y\u00fckselerek %1,79 de\u011fer kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden gelen bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili man\u015fetler, piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn May\u0131s 2026 ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 88 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, ge\u00e7ici bile olsa bir anla\u015fma ihtimali, arz beklentilerini (piyasaya gelecek petrol miktar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu belirsizlik, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa, burada petrol fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran teklifini \u201cyetersiz\u201d g\u00f6rmesi, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi yeniden da\u011f\u0131lma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. M\u00fczakerelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi, \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (piyasaya sunulacak varillerin) piyasaya gelmemesi anlam\u0131na gelir; bu da ham petrol\u00fc yeniden 100 dolar seviyelerine itebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ge\u00e7ici muafiyet (yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak uygulanmamas\u0131) bile, birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3 milyon varil \u0130ran petrol\u00fc girmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu ani arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur; WTI\u2019\u0131 yeniden 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine \u00e7ekebilir. Bu senaryoda sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131), korunma (hedge: riski azaltma) veya k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyon i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n
Bu m\u00fczakerelerin sonucu \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d niteli\u011finde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kendisine i\u015flem yapmak olabilir. 2024\u2019teki jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert fiyat hareketleri hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu tablo benzer bir risk ortam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Uzun straddle veya strangle kurmak, yani ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (straddle\u2019da ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, strangle\u2019da farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131r), fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oynakl\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda kritik viraj: Beyaz Saray \u0130ran teklifini \u201cyetersiz\u201d buldu; Tasnim ge\u00e7ici petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gev\u015femesini yazd\u0131. \u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller WTI\u2019\u0131 102,76 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; piyasada oynakl\u0131k, opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46928\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}