K\u00fcresel tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri (tahvil faizi\/\u201cgetiri\u201d) nominal Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor ya da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bunun arkas\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukaya ili\u015fkin riskin piyasalar i\u00e7in temel unsur olmaya devam etmesi ve d\u00fcnya genelinde petrol stok tamponlar\u0131n\u0131n (olas\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 elde tutulan stoklar) azalmas\u0131 var. <\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin nominal GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201criskli b\u00f6lge\u201dye girdi. \u0130ngiltere 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili (gilt) getirileri, \u0130ngiltere 1\u00c7 nominal GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ve son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalama nominal b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. <\/p>\n
Rapor, Sterlin\u2019i (GBP) \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili getirileri ve i\u00e7 siyasetle ili\u015fkilendiriyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011finin (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini ve borcu y\u00f6netebilme kapasitesine dair inan\u00e7) zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve siyasi belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131n\u0131n GBP \u00fczerinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. <\/p>\n
Piyasalar i\u00e7in ana sorun, s\u00fcren H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131. K\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131 azal\u0131rken Brent petrol varil fiyat\u0131 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor ve k\u00fcresel tahvillerde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201criskli b\u00f6lge\u201dye do\u011fru itiliyor. <\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k bu alana \u015fimdiden girdi. Ge\u00e7en hafta 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirisi %5,2\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye, en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan 1\u00c7 2026 nominal GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi olan %3,8\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu fark, ekonominin borcunu \u00e7evirme kapasitesi (vadesi gelen bor\u00e7lar\u0131 finanse edebilme) \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer ancak daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 2022 sonundaki LDI krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (LDI: emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yo\u011fun \u015fekilde t\u00fcrev ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cy\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u201d stratejileri; faiz h\u0131zla y\u00fckselince teminat \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131yla piyasa stresine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131). <\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7lar) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, Sterlin\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Sonbaharda erken genel se\u00e7im olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair konu\u015fmalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla, GBP\u2019de \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (Sterlin\u2019in y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle GBP put opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 arac\u0131) almak, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda olas\u0131 ek gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ya da bu gerilemeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in makul bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli istikrar d\u00f6nemi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temel mali sorunlar\u0131n tam olarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mevcut bask\u0131, eski k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckseliyor; ancak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruman\u0131n maliyeti (opsiyon primi) yine de kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir olabilir. <\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede GBP\/USD\u2019nin kritik 1,2000 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 izleniyor (destek: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferken al\u0131m\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilen seviye). Bu seviyenin net k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,1850 b\u00f6lgesinin test edilmesine kap\u0131 aralayabilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131, oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zeterek kurgulamas\u0131 gerekiyor. <\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 ve eriyen petrol stoklar\u0131 k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; getiriler nominal b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere \u201criskli b\u00f6lge\u201dde: %5,2 gilt, %3,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme. Sterlin bask\u0131da; GBP\/USD 1,2000 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1850, put opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46923\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}