TD Securities, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde politika faizini (nakit faiz oran\u0131) en y\u00fcksek %4,60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ilk kez \u015fubat ay\u0131nda payla\u015fan kurum, beklentisinin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
TD, may\u0131s ay\u0131 politika metnini de haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmaya isteksiz olundu\u011funa i\u015faret eden bir mesaj olarak okuyor ve RBA toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n, Y\u00f6netim Kurulu\u2019nun haziran karar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair daha net bilgi verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
TD\u2019nin tahminine g\u00f6re bir sonraki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u011fustosta gelecek ve nakit faiz oran\u0131 %4,60 ile zirve yapacak.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki de\u011ferlendirmelerimize bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, biz de RBA\u2019n\u0131n sonunda politika faizini %4,60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f ve a\u011fustosta bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etmi\u015ftik. Buradaki ana belirsizlik, ileti\u015fimin \u201cacele etmeme\u201d havas\u0131 nedeniyle ad\u0131m\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak %4,60 zirvesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi; nakit faiz oran\u0131 2026\u2019ya kadar %4,35\u2019te kald\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti; son \u00e7eyreklik veri %3,6 ile RBA\u2019n\u0131n %2\u20133 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 da s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131; i\u015fsizlik %4\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo piyasalar\u0131 faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye itiyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (faiz gibi bir g\u00f6stergeye ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha \u00f6nce bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi ihtimaline a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verirken, \u015fimdi son bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama artan bir ihtimal olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. ASX 30 G\u00fcnl\u00fck Bankalararas\u0131 Nakit Faiz Vadeli Kontratlar\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizine dair beklentiyi yans\u0131tan vadeli i\u015flem), eyl\u00fcle kadar 25 baz puan (bp; y\u00fczde 0,25) art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, \u201cindirimlerin ne zaman gelece\u011fi\u201d riskinden \u201cson bir art\u0131\u015f gelir mi\u201d riskine kay\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle, faizlerde oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar (\u00f6rne\u011fin opsiyon stratejileri; opsiyon, belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir) RBA tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Tutanaklarda \u015fahin bir ton (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyebilir; \u00f6zellikle \u00f6n taraftaki swaplarda (belirli vadede sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) hareket sertle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da m\u0131? TD Securities, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde %4,60\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sonraki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n a\u011fustosta gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Tutanaklar \u015fahinle\u015firse oynakl\u0131k ve swaplarda h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46919"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46919\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}