\u00c7in ekonomisindeki toparlanma, ilk \u00e7eyrekteki (Q1) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin ard\u0131ndan nisan ay\u0131nda h\u0131z kesti. Sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,1\u2019e gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi; sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 (fabrika, makine, altyap\u0131 gibi uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u00e7 talep zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k sadece %0,2 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131nda, ara\u00e7 ve beyaz e\u015fya gibi y\u00fcksek tutarl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (tek seferde b\u00fcy\u00fck harcama gerektiren kalemler) harcamalar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle gen\u00e7lerde bozuldu; gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi y\u00fckseldi. Hanehalk\u0131 temkinli kald\u0131 ve bu durum t\u00fcketimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler bir miktar yava\u015flad\u0131; bu, erken bir dengelenme i\u015fareti olabilir. Ancak bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n hanehalk\u0131 g\u00fcvenine yans\u0131mas\u0131 zaman alabilir.<\/p>\n
Hammadde maliyetleri artt\u0131 ve fabrikalar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fckseltti. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 izledi\u011fi belirtilirken, zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrmezse y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda (H2) hedefli maliye ve para politikas\u0131 deste\u011fi (b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131\/te\u015fvikler ve faiz-likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama emtia (ham madde) piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7in sanayi metallerinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketicisi. Son iki haftada Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019nda bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131 %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek ton ba\u015f\u0131na 8.200 dolar civar\u0131na indi; bu, talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki zay\u0131flamay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n, e\u011filim s\u00fcrerse hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda ek zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimalini dikkate almas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketimdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve merkez\u00ee y\u00f6netimin sab\u0131rl\u0131 politika duru\u015fu d\u00f6viz kurunu da bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Offshore yuan (\u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 7,30 seviyesinin \u00fczerine sarkt\u0131. Bu e\u011filim, yuan\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da de\u011fer kaybedebilece\u011fi beklentisine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve politika belirsizli\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortam\u0131n, \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. Opsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar, yaln\u0131zca y\u00f6n tahmini yerine fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejilerde f\u0131rsat bulabilir. Yak\u0131n vadede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir devlet te\u015fviki olmamas\u0131, hisse endeksleri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir deste\u011fi \u015fimdilik azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131na ait Caixin \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek hafif bir daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu okuma, nisandaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Belirgin bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) pozisyonlar\u0131n \u015fimdilik daha avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de Q1 sonras\u0131 ivme kesildi: sanayi \u00fcretimi %4,1\u2019e indi, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve perakende zay\u0131f. Bak\u0131r %5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, offshore yuan 7,30\u2019u a\u015ft\u0131; te\u015fvik gecikirse risk artar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46918\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}